Peter’s Blog

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

This time Peter tackles Jerome Powell’s speech from Wednesday, in which he announced that the Fed is holding the federal funds rate between 5.25 and 5.5%. He also briefly discusses Bitcoin’s pullback and the media’s lies about Donald Trump. 

Federal Reserve officials insist they can still shrink the balance sheet significantly more than they already have. You can file this assertion under the same category as “inflation is transitory,” and “the problems in the subprime mortgage market are contained.” In other words, Fed officials have detached from reality — again.

Most people have focused on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as it battles price inflation. But there is another element in the inflation fight most people ignore – balance sheet reduction. It isn’t going well.

Interest rate hikes get most of the attention as the Federal Reserve fights inflation, but balance sheet reduction is arguably more important. And it’s not going well. Since the Fed stopped buying Treasuries and started letting bonds fall off its books as they mature, the bond market has experienced increasing volatility and liquidity problems. In […]

The Federal Reserve is all-in on the inflation fight. Or is it? While everybody focuses on interest rate cuts, the promised Fed balance sheet reduction isn’t going quite as promised.

The Federal Reserve came through with the second rate hike of this tightening cycle, bumping up the Fed Funds rate by 0.5%. It was the biggest interest rate boost by the Fed since 2000. But given the extent of the inflation fight, this hardly seems like a bold, aggressive move. In fact, it was a […]

The Fed FOMC minutes came out last week, signaling tighter monetary policy. Peter Schiff talked about the minutes in his podcast, arguing that the Fed can’t do what it says it’s going to do. If it does, it will crash the markets and the economy. And it won’t lower inflation.

On Friday. Pres. Trump declared a national emergency. Based on that declaration, the president will reallocate $6.5 billion from other government programs to fund a border wall. In his podcast on Friday, Peter Schiff said there is indeed a national emergency, but it has nothing to do with the border. Of course, the real national emergency […]

In a recent interview with CNBC’s Rick Santelli, investment guru Jim Grant talked about the Fed’s sudden about-face when it comes to its balance sheet reduction program, as well as the phenomenon of negative interest rates. In short, Grant said the central banks have done us “no favors.”