Peter's Blog

Austrian economists agree that the Fed drives both inflation and the business cycle and is accordingly responsible for the Great Recession and our current economy. Given the Fed’s current policy path and America’s political climate, what’s the best way to end the Fed?

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

This time Peter tackles Jerome Powell’s speech from Wednesday, in which he announced that the Fed is holding the federal funds rate between 5.25 and 5.5%. He also briefly discusses Bitcoin’s pullback and the media’s lies about Donald Trump. 

Federal Reserve officials insist they can still shrink the balance sheet significantly more than they already have. You can file this assertion under the same category as “inflation is transitory,” and “the problems in the subprime mortgage market are contained.” In other words, Fed officials have detached from reality — again.

Most people have focused on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as it battles price inflation. But there is another element in the inflation fight most people ignore – balance sheet reduction. It isn’t going well.

Interest rate hikes get most of the attention as the Federal Reserve fights inflation, but balance sheet reduction is arguably more important. And it’s not going well. Since the Fed stopped buying Treasuries and started letting bonds fall off its books as they mature, the bond market has experienced increasing volatility and liquidity problems. In […]

The Federal Reserve is all-in on the inflation fight. Or is it? While everybody focuses on interest rate cuts, the promised Fed balance sheet reduction isn’t going quite as promised.

The Federal Reserve came through with the second rate hike of this tightening cycle, bumping up the Fed Funds rate by 0.5%. It was the biggest interest rate boost by the Fed since 2000. But given the extent of the inflation fight, this hardly seems like a bold, aggressive move. In fact, it was a […]