Peter's Blog

Over the past several months, Mike Maharrey and I have posted numerous articles that conclude the same way… the Fed is bluffing and when something breaks, they will fold. On every podcast, Mike has walked through exactly why this is inevitable. Back in September, I laid out the math that showed why the Fed would fold and laid […]

It appears the government lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened the deflation of the commercial real estate bubble. According to CoStar Group, an estimated $126 billion in commercial real estate will be forced to sell at distressed prices over the next two years. That will eclipse the amount of distressed commercial property […]

As pundits and politicians continue to speculate about economic recovery, hundreds of companies large and small are struggling under loads of debt, filing for bankruptcy and closing their doors. In September, 54 more large companies filed for bankruptcy, according to S&P Global intelligence. A total of 509 companies have gone bankrupt this year as of […]

Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya made waves when he said during a CNBC interview that the government should not bail out companies impacted by the coronavirus shutdowns. “On Main Street today, people are getting wiped out. Right now, rich CEOs are not, boards that have horrible governance are not,” he said. “What we’ve done is disproportionately […]

There were more signs of a retail apocalypse in the first quarter of this year. Defaults by retail companies rated by Moody’s hit an all-time high in Q1. There were a total of nine defaults among Moody’s-rated retail corporates. According to Wolf Street, total corporate defaults in Q1 were up 22% from last year, and […]

Could we be on the verge of a retail apocalypse? February marked the third straight month of declining retail sales. Analysts had not expected another drop, but they got one nonetheless. Sales fell 0.1% in February. Analysts had expected an uptick of 0.3%. This is not good news for a retail sector that is already teetering on […]

Toys R Us filed for bankruptcy earlier this week, a wicked head-shot to a retail sector that’s been reeling for months. The TRU filing ranks as the second-largest US retail bankruptcy ever, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Toys R Us had $6.6 billion in assets at the time of filing. Only Kmart was bigger. It […]

Puerto Rico officially plunged into bankruptcy this week. Years of accumulating debt and misguided government policies finally reached their inevitable end. The bankruptcy means more pain for the people of Puerto Rico, as well as bondholders who have virtually no hope of ever getting their money back. But beyond that, it serves as a giant, […]