Peter's Blog

In a new report released today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shaved another three-tenths off first-quarter growth estimates, revealing that real U.S. GDP actually slipped 0.5 percent at an annual rate instead of inching ahead. The contraction follows a 2.4 percent gain in 2024’s closing quarter, marking the economy’s sharpest quarterly swing since the […]

On June 5th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council announced another round of interest rate reductions, lowering key rates by 25 basis points. Starting June 11th, the deposit facility rate will fall to 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.40%. This move underscores the ECB’s […]

As of last week, the Federal Reserve has basically admitted it doesn’t know what’s happening in the economy. One thing’s for sure: inflation is still a problem.

America’s economy contracted slightly in the first quarter of 2025, with real GDP slipping 0.3%, reversing from a solid 2.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the downturn was largely driven by surging imports and reduced government spending. Despite underlying resilience in […]

As warning signs of recession grow, the political class will increasingly point to misleading statistics as proof of their competency. The most popular economic aggregate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is worth nuancing.

The Trade Deficit is one of the two components of the twin deficits; the other being the federal budget deficit which was last reviewed in January. The trade deficit used to be a number that received a ton of attention in the 1980s and 1990s because it was determined to be a strong gauge of […]

Rampant government spending continues to mask fundamental weaknesses in the US economy. Recently, national debt grew much faster than the economy for the third quarter in a row, just one of many warning signs concerning legendary investors. Our guest commentator explains just how much the government is spending to make the economy seem strong, even […]

The US economy is bloated. Years of massive spending and stimulus fed government bureaucracy and elites, but left behind record-high debt and stagnant income for everyone else. It’s no wonder Americans don’t see a healthy economy. Our guest commentator delves into this disconnect.

The day of reckoning for unproductive credit is in sight. With G7 national finances spiraling out of control, debt traps are being sprung on all of them, with the sole exception of Germany.

When it comes to economic data, context matters. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey explains how the Fed, many mainstream economists, and financial network talking heads get a lot wrong because of bad data, shoddy economic frameworks, and ignorance of history. Along the way, he covers the GDP and the […]