Peter’s Blog

An inverted Treasury yield curve has historically been associated with economic downturns, preceding every recession since the late 1960s. Earlier this year, it set a new record for remaining inverted for more than 624 days, which was the 1978 record.

In this episode, Peter recaps the latest batch of economic data, in which revisions to job numbers and a declining manufacturing sector bode poorly for the economy. He also analyzes gold and silver’s big week last week and offers some thoughts on President Biden’s recent post-debate interview on ABC.

While the cost of fireworks is down compared to last year, prices of just about everything else are way up. That means individuals are still buying fireworks to light off themselves, but the size and scope of municipal fireworks shows are being downgraded in many towns and cities across the country — and in some […]

Inflation breeds desperation, and desperation breeds crime. As central banks in Europe and Canada cut interest rates, and expectations remain that the Fed will wait to cut until at least September if it cuts this year at all, our endlessly-wise global central bankers, the benevolent all-knowing stewards of the global economy, can’t seem to agree […]

China has called quits on its 18-month gold buying spree, causing precious metal prices to stumble this week as the world’s largest buyer unexpectedly closes its tab. In 2023, the People’s Bank of China purchased more gold than any of the world’s other central banks, swelling its reserves of the precious metal to more than […]

The real estate market is responsible for anywhere from 20% to over 30% of China’s GDP (depending on who you ask). And with the latest meltdown that began with the implosion of Evergrande, the situation just keeps getting worse, inspiring a slew of government interventions beyond the scope of what would be possible in a […]

Central bank gold buying has been a significant factor in the yellow metal’s spectacular run-up to new record highs. But with its recent small correction downward, it’s a good time to look at which central banks are selling — and why.

The Bank of Japan’s historic move to end the country’s negative interest rate policy after nearly two decades triggered a jolt upward to new all-time highs for gold against the yen. But what are the implications for gold in the medium and longer term? The answer is far from simple. 

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. 

Anyone who has been to a restaurant, a grocery store, or the car lot during the Biden administration can’t deny the reality of inflation. But despite what the federal government is saying about the success of its anti-inflation efforts red flags for inflation keep popping up in the strangest places.