Is Putin Sitting on a Golden Trump Card?
As the world waits to see if the Swiss people will force the Swiss National Bank to re-embrace gold on November 30th, there’s another major country that has been buying gold without any pressure from its populace – Russia. We’ve reported on Russia’s currency wars against the West (here, here, and here), but exactly how does gold fit into Putin’s economic strategy? John Butler has published an article at David Stockman’s Contra Corner blog that thoroughly explores the history of the international currency wars and Russia’s role in them.
Like many analysts, Butler recognizes Putin as an extremely shrewd politician and economic rival. More importantly, Butler explains why Western sanctions on Russia might force Putin to play his trump card – physical gold holdings. According to Butler, “at current market prices, Russia’s gold reserves would back a whopping 27% of the narrow rouble money supply”. What would it mean for the world if Russia – one of the largest exporters of oil – started to officially back its rouble with gold? Butler explores this question and more…
The situation back in 1989 or 1998 was, thus, similar to if even more serious than that faced by Russia today. But if the sanctions war escalates? Things could get worse. Is Mr Putin or his senior advisers aware of what was contemplated above? That gold could provide a workable solution to stabilise the currency and economy? A distinct possibility. How likely is it that they will make this move?
“Well, let’s consider the international context. Were Russia to back the rouble with gold today, this would be a far more credible policy than it could ever have been back in 1989 or 1998, when Russia’s government was less stable and less popular, and Russia’s economy was less well-integrated with those of China, Germany and other major economies. Moreover, in recent years Russia has amassed a huge amount of gold reserves. Indeed, at current market prices, Russia’s gold reserves would back a whopping 27% of the narrow rouble money supply! That is a high ratio, far in excess of any other major country and also in excess of the US Fed’s original stipulated gold coverage minimum. Moreover, Russia is a large net exporter, notwithstanding the sanctions, so Russia’s gold reserves, by implication, are likely to continue to grow, rather than decline.
“This credibility is also reinforced by the Russian economy’s relatively low debt. Without a large debt to service, there is little temptation or need to inflate the currency. Indeed, Russian interest rates are currently around 10%, implying a generous relative return on rouble cash balances. Imagine the rouble were to be convertible into gold, AND rouble interest rates remained at 10%. This implies a nearly risk-free arbitrage of 10% between the rouble and gold. You can bet than a large number of international investors would quickly sell some gold, dollars, or other currencies, and acquire some roubles, pocketing the hefty interest rate differential. That would support the rouble, possibly leading to a large re-appreciation vis-à-vis the dollar and other currencies left unbacked by gold. Rouble interest rates could then decline, perhaps to quite low levels, where an equilibrium would eventually be reached. It could have worked in 1989, or 1998. It is far more likely to work today.
There is another aspect to consider, however, which is the possible impact this policy would have on the dollar and the international monetary system. Recall that, as the primary global reserve currency, the dollar circulates in vast quantities abroad, where it forms the bulk of the monetary reserves of central banks. This is in part what allows the US government and economy generally to finance themselves at such low interest rates. But other factors equal, if the dollar suddenly faces competition from a credible, gold-backed currency, it is likely that, at a minimum, central banks are likely to diversify at least some of their dollar reserves into interest-bearing, gold-backed roubles. Countries importing oil from Russia would have an additional incentive to do so as they would be able to pay for Russian oil imports in roubles and avoid sanctions. Speculators (or investors) anticipating an eventual internationalisation of the rouble would front-run these developments, pocketing a nice return over time.
The implied upward pressure on US interest rates would be perhaps small initially, but even a small rise in US interest rates would spell trouble for a US economy that is so highly leveraged to low rates. Growth would slow. The Fed could try to offset this by engaging in renewed QE, but that could add fuel to the fire, resulting in aggressive selling of dollars in the foreign exchange markets. In an extreme but hardly impossible scenario, the dollar could lose reserve status entirely, something that would be devastating for the US economy. While a sharply weaker dollar would help US competitiveness and exports over time, it would crush the dollar’s effective international purchasing power (eg for oil and other resources) and result in soaring consumer price inflation. The combined negative impact of higher interest rates on growth and rising consumer prices on inflation would make the stagflationary 1970s look like a picnic.”
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