After CPI came in hotter than expected yet again in January, Peter Schiff appeared on Fox Business along with Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager of Solutions Funds Group Larry Shover. Peter said that the inflation tsunami is just getting started and the Fed is powerless to fight it.
American consumers ran up more debt in December, wrapping up a year in which consumer debt increase at the fastest pace in five years.
This could prove problematic for the Federal Reserve as it contemplates raising interest rates.
The Treasury added almost $400 billion of debt in January, the third most since July 2020. As the month closed out, the national debt eclipsed $30 trillion.
The other two larger debt increases both came right after the debt ceiling was raised. Perhaps most important is the fact that almost $200B of the newly added debt was in short-term Bills (turquoise below).
The Federal is supposedly on the path to tighter monetary policy, although it is currently still pouring gas on the inflation fire. The central bank says it is tapering its asset purchases even now, and will eventually begin shrinking its balance sheet. It also plans to raise interest rates.
Peter Schiff has been saying the Fed can’t do what it claims it’s going to do. Economist André Marques agrees. He says the Fed is trapped. It doesn’t really have room to raise rates or taper.
The Federal Reserve held its first FOMC meeting of 2022. The central bank didn’t do anything, but the tone coming out of the meeting was widely perceived as even more “hawkish.” Everybody is convinced the Fed really means it now. The inflation fight is on. Is it though? Host Mike Maharrey talks about the messaging and perceptions coming out of this meeting and calls it a big flim-flam.
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year yesterday without any real surprises. Despite everybody screaming about an inflation problem, the Fed will keep its loose, inflationary monetary policy in play for at least two more months.
The Federal Reserve is talking about raising interest rates. But the US economy is buried under piles of debt. I’ve been asking how this is going to work for months. Apparently, the question has finally occurred to the mainstream.
A CNBC article declared, “Fed rate hikes will intensify a global debt crisis, research warns.”
Inflation is running hot. Economic data is running cold. Stocks and bonds are under pressure. The Fed is scrambling. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the trajectory of the economy. He said we’re on the cusp of the most obvious crisis that virtually nobody saw coming. The Federal Reserve made this bed. Now we have to lie in it.
With 2021 now in the rear-view mirror, I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.
While the history of American markets is littered with periods of irrational exuberance, none of those episodes can really match the current market for outright delusion and the blatant disregard for basic investment discipline.