Peter's Blog

Peter Schiff: The Fed Still isn’t Data-Driven

In this mid-week episode, Peter analyzes recent PPI and CPI reports, reiterates his September rate-hike prediction, and comments on the Tump-Musk X interview that garnered the country’s attention on Monday. He also diagnoses the source of high housing and education costs that have made the economy feel so brutal to everyday Americans.

Flattening Yield Curve is the Calm Before the Storm

Americans are already struggling to feed their families and pay their bills, but having predicted every US recession since 1960, the flattening bond yield curve is speaking loud and clear that an “official” downturn is nearly inevitable. With bond prices on the rise as the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September, the […]

Volatility Incoming: The End of the Yen Carry Trade

Earlier this year, we discussed the likelihood of the yen carry trade unwinding under the BoJ’s decision to end decades of zero-interest rate policy, or ZIRP. That unwinding now appears to be entering full swing.

Chinese Taking Advantage of Yen Weakness as Domestic Retail Struggles

As the Chinese central bank slashes interest rates in a bid to save its floundering economy, and the Bank of Japan continually intervenes to the tune of billions to save its dying yen, wealthy Chinese consumers are headed in droves to Japan to take advantage of the exchange rate and load up on fancy goods. […]

Will China Be the First Domino in a Global Collapse?

The increasingly desperate, secretive Chinese Communist Party may be powerless to stop the combination of downward trends which, upon passing an event horizon, could trigger a global collapse as the world’s second-largest national economy continues to edge closer to the brink.

Inflation “Cooled” in June, So Why is Consumer Confidence Still Tanking?

The recent CPI report showed that inflation is, according to official data, cooling down — so why are consumers more worried for the future than they’ve been in months? If prices are coming down, shouldn’t that fuel higher confidence and a greater collective sense of economic well-being? One simple answer is that the official data […]

The Yield Curve & Christine Lagarde Agree — Don’t Expect A “Soft Landing”

An inverted Treasury yield curve has historically been associated with economic downturns, preceding every recession since the late 1960s. Earlier this year, it set a new record for remaining inverted for more than 624 days, which was the 1978 record.

Treasury Finally Issues Some Long-Term Debt

After nearly 10 months of issuing mostly short-term debt, the Treasury finally issued Notes in 2 of the last 3 months.

ZIRP-Addicted Japan Is Crumbling Under Higher Rates

The message is loud and clear: The Japanese economy has no tolerance for higher interest rates after the Bank of Japan has kept them artificially near zero for decades. Meanwhile, as the largest holders of US Treasury debt, Japan’s economic well-being has become inextricably dependent on the capricious whims of Federal Reserve monetary policy — […]

Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet by Nearly $120B in May

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.