This week Peter covers the highlights of a volatile trading week, paying special attention to Nvidia, Wall Street’s favorite AI stock, and Newmont Corporation, a heavy hitter in the gold mining industry. Both companies’ shares experienced dramatic price action this week, with NVDA gaining $260 billion in market cap and pulling the market up after an excellent earnings report. Newmont, on the other hand, saw shares fall 7% after a disappointing last quarter.
In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap Podcast, JD and Joel discuss why gold is down today, why the Fed could replay 2008, and other market and precious metals news.
A Major Trend Change
In 2023, the Treasury added $2.6T to the national debt. While that number alone should be enough to scare anyone, the details reveal something even more concerning. $2T of it, or 77%, was financed entirely with short-term Treasury Bills maturing in less than a year. The chart below shows the debt issuance trend over the last 20 years. As shown, the Treasury typically relies on medium-term debt (2-10 Year Notes) to fund the budget deficit. 2023 was a massive change in standard procedure as shown by the giant light blue bar on the right of the chart.
The president touted a manufacturing renaissance. However, economic indices show US manufacturing entering a Dark Age. Home sales are not looking bright, either.
Peter Schiff left a stark warning at the end of the year: “2024 could be a horrible year for the dollar.”
Here are 3 big reasons why Peter thinks inflation might rise even higher this year.
What’s going on with US banks?
Over the last month, loans outstanding in the Federal Reserve bank bailout program increased by $17.24 billion. It was the second month we’ve seen borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) surge. And the pace of borrowing is increasing.
US stocks surged with the promise of interest rate cuts. Then stocks tanked when some Fed officials tried to walk that promise back. Then they surged again when some weak economic data put rate cuts back on the table. As Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey put it, easy money is one heck of a drug! In this episode, he explains the impact of easy money on the economy and the markets, and he speculates about the future.
The US stock market had a potentially significant day on Wednesday. Markets have been rallying on the hope of interest rate cuts in the near future. But Fed officials have been trying to walk back those expectations. Did the central bankers manage to steal the Santa Claus rally? In his podcast, Peter Schiff talks about the recent moves in the stock market.
The Federal Reserve recently surrendered in its inflation fight. But price inflation is nowhere near the 2% target. Why did the Fed raise the white flag prematurely?
One of the major reasons is debt.
The world is buried under record debt levels and the global economy can’t function in a high interest rate environment.
After the Federal Reserve effectively surrendered to inflation at its December meeting, projecting three rate cuts next year, New York Fed President John Williams tried to walk the surrender back. In his podcast, Peter Schiff analyzed Williams’ more hawkish comments and compared them to Powell’s dovish stance after the FOMC meeting.
Williams said, “We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now,” and that it’s premature to expect rates to fall in the opening months of 2024.
