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Exploring Finance

POSTED ON May 5, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The March trade deficit came in at -$110B. This obliterated the February record trade deficit of $90B. As the chart below shows, the trade deficit has set a record in each of the last 4 months. It was creeping upwards from -$80B to -$90B before exploding in the latest month.

POSTED ON April 30, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

Since the peak on March 8, Managed Money has reduced its Net Long positions by 60k contracts or 43%. Despite massive selling, the gold price has actually held up fairly well. The last time Managed Money net longs dropped this low in February, gold was struggling at the $1800 level, versus the struggle at $1900 now.

Please note: the COTs report was published 4/29/2022 for the period ending 4/26/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

POSTED ON April 26, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The price analysis last month highlighted how gold was trying to carve out fragile support around $1900 and breakthrough resistance at $1950.

Gold found a spark and broke through $1950, but has been unable to hold above it in the wake of “hawkish” Fed comments. Now, $1900 is being tested and should give clues to the next move. So far, it has held with only a slight dip into the $1800s before recovering. A hard bounce here would prove near-term bullish, but if the price breaks down below $1880 it could be a few more months until gold musters the strength to take on $2000 again.

POSTED ON April 13, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The Treasury ran a budget deficit of $193B in the month of March. This exceeded the 12-month average of $144B.

Over the last year, the Treasury has seen a massive influx of Individual tax revenues that have helped support the ballooning Federal Deficit. Unfortunately, spending has been so high that the additional revenue did not give much reprieve, causing the Treasury to borrow $2.27T over the last 12 months.

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