Silver delivery from the COMEX was low in April, but there is more to the story.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
The technical analysis last month highlighted how the current price spike looked unsustainable and needed time to consolidate. It also mentioned that we may be at a turning point in precious metals, concluding:
On the surface, everything still looks fine at the COMEX, but the data reveals more going on.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
The Federal Government ran a gargantuan deficit of -$378B in March. This is over $100B larger than the massive February deficit. In the last three years, only the deficit last September was larger because the government recognized the cost of Biden’s student loan forgiveness. September aside, this month was the largest deficit month since March 2021 when Biden signed the last Covid deficit bailout package.
The CPI rose in March by 0.06%, which was less than expected. That said, as the chart below shows, the fall in Energy prices was entirely responsible for containing an otherwise high CPI.
The BLS reported that 236k jobs were added in March. Similar to December and January, the Household survey greatly exceeded the Headline Report with 577k jobs added. The Household Survey was surprisingly strong given the current economic environment.
The February Trade Deficit increased for the third month in a row, rising by $1.9 billion. Net Goods came in at -$92.9B with Net Services at $22.4B to reach a total of -$70.5B.
Based on the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, the latest price action is potentially even more bullish than normal. The latest price moves have been supported by Managed Money but the data clearly shows there is more driving the upward movement.
Please note: the CoTs report was published 03/31/2023 for the period ending 03/28/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
Gold has been seeing a large number of contracts roll in the final day of the contract. That did not happen this month. This has resulted in a large delivery volume.
By now it should be common knowledge that the Fed has blown up its balance sheet rather quickly to combat the current banking crisis. As the chart below illustrates, the Fed added a gargantuan sum to its balance sheet in March, netting an increase of $324B.
