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Original Analysis

POSTED ON April 15, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

In his latest commentary, Peter Schiff encourages gold bears to stay focused on the big picture: gold is moving from indebted nations to emerging markets that are reducing their dependence on US dollar reserves.

POSTED ON April 2, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

By Peter Schiff

The news of the month comes from the large Mediterranean island of Cyprus, where Keynesian economic planning left the economy facing complete bankruptcy. The result was an unprecedented step forward in the financial collapse of the West: direct forfeiture of bank deposits.

Despite official protestations to the contrary, this fallout will spread to a bank near you.

A Crystal Ball

The recent history of Cyprus is a microcosm of the story of all Western nation-states.

POSTED ON April 1, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Peter Schiff’s latest commentary looks at what happens when a country becomes addicted to easy money, and explains why the Fed will keep pumping money the US economy until a currency crisis forces it to stop.

For years we have been warned by Keynesian economists to fear the so-called ‘liquidity trap,’ an economic cul-de-sac that can suck down an economy like a tar pit swallowing a mastodon. They argue that economies grow because banks lend and consumers spend. But a ‘liquidity trap’ convinces consumers not to consume and businesses not to borrow. The resulting combination of slack demand and falling prices creates a pernicious cycle that cannot be overcome by the ordinary forces that create growth, like savings or investment. They argue that a liquidity trap can even resist the extraordinary force of monetary stimulus by rendering cash injections into useless ‘string pushing.’ Some of these economists suggest that its power can only be countered by massive fiscal stimulus (in the form of a world war or other fortunately timed event) that leads to otherwise unattainable levels of government spending.

POSTED ON March 26, 2013  - POSTED IN Key Gold Headlines, Original Analysis, Videos

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POSTED ON March 1, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

By Peter Schiff

Testifying before the US Senate this past Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made an extraordinary claim about its bloated balance sheet: “We could exit without ever selling by letting it run off.” What Bernanke means here is that the Fed could simply hold its Treasuries and agency bonds until they mature, at which point the government would then be forced to pay the Fed back the principal amount. Through this process, the Fed’s unprecedented and inflationary position will be gradually and placidly unwound.

Growing rumors last month of a potential “tightening” of monetary policy – seemingly confirmed by the Fed minutes released on Feb. 20th – have spooked the precious metals markets, leading to a 5.8% correction in gold and 10.2% in silver.

However, these fears are preposterous on two counts.

POSTED ON February 13, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Both CNBC and MarketWatch ran articles this week about Peter Schiff’s outlook of where the American economy is headed. CNBC wrote about the international currency war, and Peter’s belief that America will ultimately win, therefore destroying consumer purchasing power and bolstering gold.

POSTED ON February 10, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

By Dickson Buchanan

The Setting: The Bank and Currency Committee, Washington, DC, 1912.

In the Panic of 1907, the stock market fell over 50% in one day and caused massive bank runs. Bailouts had done little to restore confidence. Five years later, all this still lingered palpably in the minds of the crowd packed into the courthouse to listen to the testimony of one of the most powerful men in all of American history. By some considered a hero; by others, a criminal.

His Name: John Pierpont Morgan.

POSTED ON February 5, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

By Peter Schiff

The financial world was shocked this month by a demand from Germany’s Bundesbank to repatriate a large portion of its gold reserves held abroad. By 2020, Germany wants 50% of its total gold reserves back in Frankfurt – including 300 tons from the Federal Reserve. The Bundesbank’s announcement comes just three months after the Fed refused to submit to an audit of its holdings on Germany’s behalf. One cannot help but wonder if the refusal triggered the demand.

Either way, Germany appears to be waking up to a reality for which central banks around the world have been preparing: the dollar is no longer the world’s safe-haven asset and the US government is no longer a trustworthy banker for foreign nations. It looks like their fears are well-grounded, given the Fed’s seeming inability to return what is legally Germany’s gold in a timely manner. Germany is a developed and powerful nation with the second largest gold reserves in the world. If they can’t rely on Washington to keep its promises, who can?

POSTED ON January 20, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

On Friday, CBS MoneyWatch published Peter Schiff’s rebuttal to prominent gold skeptic Larry Swedroe, who had challenged Peter’s precious metals forecasting. Peter writes:

In an article entitled “Ignore the ‘buy gold now’ crowd” on CBS MoneyWatch this Monday, columnist and equities analyst Larry Swedroe criticizes forecasters who remain bullish on gold despite its monumental decade-long run.

He links to an interview in which I forecast that gold will rise above $5,000/oz before this bull market ends. Unsourced, Swedroe modifies my prediction to $2,300/oz by the end of 2013. While I typically forecast overall market direction rather than timing, I’m fairly comfortable with the words Swedroe put in my mouth. I believe gold will continue to rise and close 2013 significantly higher than present levels, and I’m invested accordingly. What I find most disconcerting in Swedroe’s piece is everything that follows. He goes on to question both a) investment forecasting as a practice and b) gold as an asset in general.”

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POSTED ON January 9, 2013  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

By Peter Schiff

Everyone knows the investor’s mantra: “buy low, sell high.” Rather than fretting about lower gold prices over the past month, investors should be seizing this golden opportunity to safely store some wealth in precious metals before gold and silver start ratcheting higher again. I’m not the only one anticipating $2,000 and higher gold – experts all over the world are predicting another bullish year for the yellow metal.

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