The Inflation/Deflation Debate: Maloney & Schiff Face Off (Video)
What is coming next to the United States – massive deflation or inflation? Peter Schiff & Mike Maloney have different opinions on this economic question, though they both agree that the US dollar’s days are numbered. In part four of their one-on-one conversation, Peter and Mike debate what will happen to the US economy in the more immediate future.
View part one: Peter Schiff & Mike Maloney’s First Face-to-Face Discussion
Part two: Is Gold Heading to $13000?
Part three: Saving Your Retirement Nest Egg from the Next Market Crash
This is part four of a series we’ve produced from this valuable discussion. Videos on new topics will be released weekly for the rest of the month.
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Follow along with this full transcript:
Mike: Back in 2005, ’06 and ’07 when I was writing my book, I wrote that there would be inflation and then the threat of deflation. I said that Ben Bernanke would be the next Fed Chairman, and he would over react with big helicopter drops of currency, which he ended up doing. So the threat of deflation was the popping of the stock market and the real estate bubble in 2007 and ’08. And then he would over react which will drive us into big inflation but then, there would be a real deflation, a contraction of the currency supply. That’s a popping of the bond bubble, is what I see. That would bring real deflation, and then all the world Central Banks in unison will be over reacting potentially bringing us into hyperinflation. I call it the “Roller Coaster Crash.” You believe that we are going straight into inflation, right?
Peter: We already have that. They have already tried to scare us with deflation. They’ve tried to say, “Oh, we have to fight deflation. We have to make sure that we have more inflation.” The Federal Reserve has a target of 2% inflation, and they’ve told us now that inflation is not high enough, that we need more inflation. So we’ve already had that boogieman, this funny scare. So the government is doing everything that they can to prevent a healthy deflation. Deflation is the solution to our problems, but the government has a different agenda. The government is trying to continue to prop up asset markets.
And, of course, inflation benefits debtors, and the government being the world’s largest debtor, and not just our government, other governments, rather than defaulting, they want to inflate. They want to pretend to pay people back with money of diminished value. So I think we’ve already seen that, and I don’t think the governments are going to let the bond bubbles burst because there’s too much at stake. They should but I think just as people want out of these bonds, the governments are just going to step up their efforts. I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet with respect to quantitative easing. I think they can come back. They were doing 85 billion a month before. They can come back with 150-200 billion a month. Whatever they do…
Mike: And they will.
Peter: The will do whatever it takes. But I don’t think we are going to see… When you talk about deflation, I know that we are going to see is situation where the cost of living actually comes down in terms of dollars. We could see some declines in [crosstalk] prices…
Mike: What about the contraction of the currency supply because I go for the Austrian definition of inflation and deflation, which is an expansion or contraction of the currency supply and then prices follow.
Peter: But even if currency supply were to contract, if the velocity were to pick up at the same time…
Mike: Yeah, it’s affected.
Peter: It’s the question of if the people want that currency. And ultimately, if nobody wants the money at all, it doesn’t matter how much you contract, if nobody wants the… there’s no demand for that money or if people want to get rid of it as soon as they get a hold of it because they don’t want to be caught out when the music stops. I think we’ve already passed that point.
Remember, we had a big rally of the dollar in 2008, when I think people reacted the wrong way due to financial crises. And even with that big rally of the dollar, we still didn’t have falling consumer prices in the United States in 2008. Prices still rose even in an environment where the dollar strengthened dramatically. And in fact, we’ve just had a big increase in the value of the dollar and consumer prices are still rising. We’re on a precipice of something huge and you’ve got the powers that will be telling us everything is great, and there’s nothing to worry about. But there’s a lot to worry about and people have to do what they can on their own to protect themselves.
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