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Original Analysis

POSTED ON December 3, 2015  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

company-dickson-buchananThis article was written by Dickson Buchanan, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

To hike or not to hike – that question continues to swirl around the Federal Reserve. But it obscures an even more significant question: what difference does it really make to the gold investor?

As I explained last week, the Fed finds itself in a damned-if-it-does, damned-if-it-doesn’t scenario. Regardless of whatever economic news spins out of Washington D.C. in the next few weeks, the central bank has plenty of reasons not to raise rates. As we’ve argued for months, the economy simply can’t sustain a rate-hike of any significant amount over the long-haul. But if the Fed balks at a rate hike yet again, its credibility takes another shot on the chin.

So, it might try to nudge rates up this month. Or, it may well put it off again. But what does this mean for gold? Does it really matter in the long run?

Not really. There are more important fundamentals to consider.

POSTED ON November 30, 2015  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

company-dickson-buchananThis article was written by Dickson Buchanan, SchiffGold Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

To hike or not to hike? That is the question.

Indeed, that has been the question for what seems like an eternity. But the question of whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates in December misses the point. The truth is, the Federal Reserve is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t.

The “rate hike hype” began nearly three years ago. We’ve experienced almost 36 months of wishy washy, back and forth, pseudo-scientific attempts to decipher increasingly vague and non-conclusive Fed minutes as to when, how much, and what kind of rate hike we can expect.

You don’t have to be a professional economist to recognize the Fed policy as a stall tactic. Peter Schiff has called them out on this point time and again, showing that if they really wanted to raise rates, they would have done so by now.

POSTED ON November 27, 2015  - POSTED IN Interviews, Original Analysis, Videos

On CNBC Asia on Wednesday night, Peter Schiff defended his forecast that the Federal Reserve is very unlikely to raise interest rates in December. He argued the Fed is focused on keeping a market bubble inflated, instead of allowing the US to experience a painful, but necessary economic recovery. Peter pointed to companies like Amazon as proof that market valuations are completely out of line with fundamental realities:

Amazon sells stuff for less than it costs. They just keep selling stuff and losing money… This is the problem everybody has – when you have companies that are selling at a loss because they’re trying to drive their revenues, not their profits. Because the people buying the stocks just don’t care.”

POSTED ON November 17, 2015  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

This article is written by Peter Schiff and published by CNBC.

The September jobs report, which was released in early October, was so universally dismal that it managed to convince the majority of investors the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in 2015.

Since it is widely believed that gold rallies when interest rates stay below the rate of inflation, it is not surprising that in the two weeks following the release of the report, gold rallied from a multi-year low of $1,113 on Sept. 30 to $1,184 on Oct. 14, a gain of 6.4 percent. But the sentiment didn’t last. A number of pro-rate hike statements from Fed officials, a supposedly hawkish statement from the Fed’s October meeting, and a better-than-expected October jobs report released in early November, convinced the vast majority of investors and economists that a December rate hike was firmly back in play. This sent gold right back down, hitting a multi-year low of $1,075, a decline of over 9 percent in just two weeks.

POSTED ON November 16, 2015  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

This article is written by Peter Schiff and originally published by Euro Pacific Capital. Find it here.

Nearly 92% of economists surveyed this week by the Wall Street Journal expect that our eight-year experiment with unprecedented monetary easing from the Federal Reserve will come to an end at the next Federal Reserve meeting in December. Since we have had the monetary wind at our back for so many years, at least a few have begun to question our ability to make economic and financial gains against actual headwinds. But in reality, the tightening cycle that the forecasters are waiting for actually started last year. Sadly, the markets and the economy are already showing an inability to handle it.

While it’s true that we have yet to achieve “lift-off” from zero percent interest rates, rates have not been the only means by which the Fed has provided stimulus. We also have to account for the effects of quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance of the Fed. Changes in those inputs over the past year have already created conditions of monetary tightening.

POSTED ON November 12, 2015  - POSTED IN Key Gold Headlines, Original Analysis, Videos

After a year of anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, all eyes are on the Fed’s December meeting. There are two obvious outcomes: the Fed does raise interest rates or it does not. In his November Gold Videocast, Peter Schiff explains why both scenarios are bullish for gold. Peter points to the behavior of gold under both Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker as proof that a rising interest rate environment isn’t automatically bearish for the yellow metal. On the other hand, if the Fed continues to delay raising interest rates, investors will begin to realize their expectations were ill-founded and reconsider their positions in gold and silver.

Either way, investors who have been waiting to buy should thank the Fed for extending the opportunity to buy gold for less than $1,100 an ounce.

POSTED ON November 11, 2015  - POSTED IN Key Gold Headlines, Original Analysis

Peter Schiff has been saying that it’s only a matter of time before the student loan bubble pops.

Now you can watch the clock tick thanks to the new National Student Loan Debt Clock developed for MarketWatch by StartClass, an education data site.

According to MarketWatch calculations, student loan debt increases in America by an estimated $2,726.27 every single second:

POSTED ON November 7, 2015  - POSTED IN Original Analysis, Videos

In his latest video blog post, Peter Schiff challenges the mainstream notion that the October jobs numbers released yesterday are good enough to justify the a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

Just because a rate hike is a possibility doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. It’s been a possibility all year. People thought it was possible they were going to raise rates in March. They didn’t. They thought it was possible they’d do it in June, September. Some people thought they might have raise rates last month. That was possible, but it didn’t happen… Yellen didn’t say that if we get all the improvements we want, we’re going to raise rates. She said if we get all the improvements we want, we might raise rates. She didn’t even use the word probable… Probable would imply the possibility was greater than 50/50…”

POSTED ON October 30, 2015  - POSTED IN Key Gold Headlines, Original Analysis

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) generally follow the price of gold. As a result, they have been underperforming relative to the general stock market this year.

For instance, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) lost about 28.3% of its value in 2013, fell another 2.2% in 2014 and yet another 3.8% so far this year. It was recently trading at $109.72 per share.

15 10 30 gld vs gdx

ETFs are backed by physical gold held by the issuer, and are traded on the market like stocks. They allow investors to play gold without having to buy full ounces of gold at spot price. Since their purchase is just a number in a computer, they can trade their investment into another stock or cash pretty much whenever they want, even multiple times in the same day. Many speculative investors appreciate this liquidity.

There are also gold mining ETFs that track the value of gold mining companies and also generally follow the price of gold. These are very popular with speculative commodity investors and some of the most popular hit record lows this past summer, like the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

With gold ETF prices being so low, many of Peter Schiff’s clients have asked if they should be investing in these ETFs.

POSTED ON October 29, 2015  - POSTED IN Interviews, Original Analysis, Videos

Ernie Hancock of Declare Your Independence interviewed Peter Schiff about the tragic death of his father, Irwin. They discussed Irwin Schiff’s legacy and his influence on Peter’s understanding of economics. Peter has chosen to promote his father’s principles by educating the public about how to avoid the US government’s most insidious tax – not the income tax, but the inflation tax that comes from the destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power. One of the best ways to protect your hard-earned savings? Buy physical gold and silver.

I’m trying to do the best that I can to help Americans protect themselves agains that tax. My father was trying to get people to not pay the income tax. Well, this inflation tax is going to be worse, because it’s going to hit your principal – not just what you earn, but everything you have. If you don’t want to lose what you have, you have to take action now…”

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