Peter's Blog

Will the Fed Stay in the Ring With Inflation? Or Is the Tough Talk Just Hot Air?

Cooling Consumer Price Index data did not cool the hot rhetoric coming from some Federal Reserve members. The question is whether this is a bunch of hot air or do these central bankers actually have the fortitude to move forward with rate hikes in the face of a sinking economy?

CPI Cools Modestly; How Will the Fed Play This?

As expected, the Consumer Price index cooled a bit thanks to falling gasoline prices. The question is will this give the Federal Reserve the excuse it needs bow out of the inflation fight? The Consumer Price Index for July was up 8.5% year-on-year. That was down from June’s 9.1% print and slightly below the 8.7% […]

Peter Schiff Damn the Recession! It’s Rate Hikes Ahead!

After the second straight negative GDP print in Q2, the markets began anticipating that the Federal Reserve would pivot away from its monetary tightening. But a few choice words from some Fed members this week caused thoughts of a pivot to pivot. As Peter Schiff put it in his podcast, it appears to be damn […]

Is the Federal Reserve at the End of Its Rope?

The Federal Reserve delivered another 75 basis point interest rate hike at its July FOMC meeting. This pushes the federal funds rate over the 2% threshold to between 2.25% and 2.5%. The mainstream media emphasized the size of the hike. One headline called it “a second super-sized hike,” with many other mainstream pundits noting that […]

Taking Gaslighting to New Heights the White House Changes the Definition of “Recession”

You don’t have to worry about that recession anymore. The White House fixed it. And by “fixed it” I mean it just changed the commonly held definition of a recession.

Now Inflation Is the Millennials’ Fault! Or Is It?

Putin is causing inflation. Greedy corporations are causing inflation. COVID-19 caused inflation. We hear all kinds of reasons for the recent spike in prices. And now we have a new one. It’s the millennials’ fault. This is all wrong and it illustrates the problem with redefining inflation to be something it isn’t.

Does the Jump in Retail Sales Mean the Economy Is OK?

Retail sales rose 1% in June after a 0.1% decline in May. Mainstream media breathlessly reported that the jump in retail spending “eases” recession fears. Does it though?

Another Hot CPI Read Backs the Fed Deeper into a Corner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the central bank have continued to talk tough about fighting inflation. But I’m pretty certain that in private, they were desperately hoping to see some cooling in the inflation data so they could start backing out of the ring. With a recession pretty clearly on the horizon […]

How Long Will the Fed Hawks Keep Flying?

After the June FOMC meeting and the Fed’s 75- basis point interest rate hike, I argued that the central bank is totally winging it. Reading between the lines in the minutes from that June meeting seems to bear this out. The Fed appears to be in reaction mode. The question becomes what will it react […]

Rick Rule: Fed Will “Chicken Out” on Inflation Fight

Well-known investment advisor Rick Rule said the Fed will chicken out on its inflation fight. Rule runs Rule Investment Media and formerly served as the president and CEO of Sprott US Holdings Inc. In a recent interview, Rule said that the Fed could get inflation under control with significantly tighter monetary policy for a sustained […]