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December 14, 2023Original Analysis

The Fed Surrenders to Inflation!

The Federal Reserve just surrendered to inflation. Fed officials won’t call it a surrender. They’re claiming victory. But surrender is the effect of the policy trajectory laid out by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its December meeting.

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December 13, 2023Original Analysis

Plenty of Hype for a So-So CPI Report

Why do virtually all the mainstream pundits think the Federal Reserve has won the inflation fight? Maybe it’s just wishful thinking. They want the Fed to win so it can go back to what it does best – creating more inflation with artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing. Regardless, most of the mainstream punditry […]

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December 7, 2023Original Analysis

Joe Biden: Economic Ignoramus

Are “greedy” corporations driving inflation? Could taxing billionaires solve the federal government’s fiscal problems? According to President Joe Biden, the answer to both questions is yes. And the correct answer is no.

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November 30, 2023Original Analysis

US Trade Deficit 2024

No one is talking about the US trade deficit in the current fiscal year, but it is likely to be another record, bringing with it new rounds of trade sanctions and protectionism. In this article, I explain why the twin deficit hypothesis will apply, bearing in mind a likely budget deficit outturn of $3 trillion […]

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November 23, 2023Original Analysis

Managing a Crisis

This article concludes that the current downturn in bond yields is part of a continuing market manipulation by central banks in order to restore confidence in the global economic outlook. There is a long history of government intervention in markets. In the nineteenth century, it was by legal regulation, the most notable of which was […]

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November 22, 2023Original Analysis

Shrinkflation: Robbing Us Quietly in Back Alleys

Inflation robs you of purchasing power by driving up the price of everything you buy. You see the impacts of inflation every time you go to the store. But sometimes inflation hits you in a more subtle way that’s difficult to see – through “shrinkflation.” I experienced shrinkflation first-hand last weekend.

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November 16, 2023Original Analysis

Is Gold About to Take Off?

The technical position for gold is looking very positive for higher prices. But technical analysis should be backed by fundamentals. To a large extent, fundamentals are in the eye of the beholder, whose opinions in any situation can vary from positive to negative and everything in between. But even for the economic optimists, there are […]

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