On July 21, we reported that silver had powered above $20 an ounce and was at a six-year high. The very next day, the white metal blasted through $21 an ounce and was approaching $22. So what does silver’s breakout really mean? Peter Schiff talked about it in his podcast.
The price of silver has surged along with gold over the last few weeks and has pushed above $19 an ounce. But the white metal continues to lag behind gold with the silver-gold ratio at over 94-1. This is a historically wide spread and it is telling us that silver remains way undervalued. At some point, you would expect that ratio to close, meaning silver has a long way to run up.
Fundamentals in the silver market also look bullish for the white metal with increasing demand and a squeeze on supply. Investment demand for silver was up 10% in the first half of 2020, according to the latest data compiled by the Silver Institute.
Silver just had its biggest monthly gain in nine years.
The spot price of the white metal went into May at $14.96 per ounce and closed on May 29 at $17.98, a 20.7% increase. Silver futures did even better, with the price of silver for July delivery hitting $18.50 per ounce Friday.
In the last week, the price of the white metal has moved up from $15.51 to $17.35. (as I type this on Tuesday morning May 19) That’s an 11.9% increase.
With the jump in the price of silver, the silver-gold ratio has dropped from over 113-1 earlier this month to 101-1 today.
Silver hasn’t been this cheap compared to gold in 5,000 years of human history. What is the silver-gold ratio telling us? Is silver about to shine?
Kanesh was an important trading hub in the Assyrian empire. The city was located in the middle of what is now Turkey, at the midpoint of the route between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.
The silver-gold ratio has ticked back up to historically high levels of late.
As I write this article, the ratio stands at just over 88:1. That means it takes 88 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1.
In simple terms, historically, silver is extremely underpriced compared to gold.
Many of SchiffGold clients hold silver patiently waiting for a drop in the silver to gold ratio. I am very much one of these patient holders of silver.
For those who aren’t familiar, the silver to gold ratio is exactly as it sounds: the price of gold stated in ounces of silver.
Today the silver to gold ratio is trading at about 87:1. In simple terms, this means it takes 87 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
Silver tends to get lost gold’s spotlight but there are reasons to consider adding silver to your portfolio as well. The silver-gold ratio remains at historically high levels. Practically speaking, this means silver is on sale. The supply and demand dynamics also look good for the white metal. Demand is up and global mine output fell last year.
There have been financial commentators, pundits, and asset managers who have stated that during periods of stagflation — low real GDP growth and high inflation — silver has underperformed gold. But as Dan Kurtz of DK Analytics shows, that conventional wisdom doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.