Peter’s Blog

In this episode, Peter recounts a brutal week for the markets. He discusses why the size of the Fed’s expected rate cut this month is now more important than ever. With several alarming indicators, including the semiconductor index tanking and an overall dismal jobs report, the market is worried the Fed won’t cut rates by […]

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

On Friday’s episode, Peter focuses on the Harris campaign’s recently announced and economically illiterate policy proposals, including what are effectively price controls and additional subsidies to drive housing costs up. He also discusses what proved to be a great week for gold, with the metal finishing the week above $2500.

In this mid-week episode, Peter analyzes recent PPI and CPI reports, reiterates his September rate-hike prediction, and comments on the Tump-Musk X interview that garnered the country’s attention on Monday. He also diagnoses the source of high housing and education costs that have made the economy feel so brutal to everyday Americans.

With the expectation of an interest rate cut soon, commercial real estate stocks are up. But while lower interest rates might kick the can down the road, they can’t fill empty office buildings — so they won’t end the post-COVID CRE doom loop that could trigger a banking meltdown.

Americans are already struggling to feed their families and pay their bills, but having predicted every US recession since 1960, the flattening bond yield curve is speaking loud and clear that an “official” downturn is nearly inevitable. With bond prices on the rise as the Fed looks increasingly likely to cut rates in September, the […]

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

In this extra long episode, Peter covers a lot of ground. Starting with the assassination attempt on Donald Trump’s life and the country’s reaction to it, Peter also discusses his hopes for Trump’s increasingly likely second term. He then pivots to Jerome Powell’s remarks from this past week, offers criticism of a recent Supreme Court […]

An inverted Treasury yield curve has historically been associated with economic downturns, preceding every recession since the late 1960s. Earlier this year, it set a new record for remaining inverted for more than 624 days, which was the 1978 record.