In the calendar year 2021, federal tax revenues surged by an incredible 25% compared to 2020 and were up 22.8% over 2019 (pre-COVID). But the surge in tax revenues was not enough to overcome a record $6.8 trillion in spending, breaking the spending record set in 2020 by 1.6%.
The federal government continues to run big budget deficits as spending skyrockets. Increasing tax revenues are the only thing keeping the deficits from blowing up even further. But how long will this tax windfall last?
Similar to August and September, the total national debt has not increased due to the current debt ceiling that’s in place. Similar to August, the Treasury has raided public retirement accounts to continue funding government spending (light green bar below).
Looking at the bigger picture, Covid has forever shifted the landscape of US Debt.
The federal budget deficit in October came in at $165 billion. That represents a staggering 36.8% of total expenditures for the month.
This is slightly below the 12-month average where the deficit represented 39.3% of total expenditures. Over the twelve-month period, the total deficit was $2.65 trillion driven by total expenditures that reached $6.7 trillion.
The following analysis breaks down the huge October federal budget deficit and sets it in historical context.
The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.33 trillion, up $111 billion from the prior month-end.
The chart below shows how the Fed Balance sheet has grown by instrument over the last 18 months. The major surge from COVID can be clearly seen as $2.5T was added within 2 months. The monthly changes since then reflect QE on autopilot.
The mainstream narrative is that the Fed will soon admit that inflation isn’t transitory. At that point, it will raise interest rates and taper its bond-buying program to fight rising prices. But this narrative ignores the elephant in the room – the ever-increasing national debt.
In June, the US government ran another big deficit of $174.16 billion, continuing the trend of overspending and massive budget shortfalls.
Last week, President Trump tweeted the rug out from under stimulus when he announced that negotiations were going to be cut off until after the election. The markets immediately tanked. But Trump quickly reversed course. As Peter Schiff explained in his podcast, the president is now in the process of out-Democrating the Democrats on the stimulus issue. Peter said the Republicans lost the argument the moment they conceded stimulus is “good” for the economy.
On June 9, the national debt surged above $26 trillion. Just over one month before that, the debt eclipsed $25 trillion. And 28 days before that, the national debt stood at a mere $24 million. May’s budget shortfall came in at a staggering $398.8 billion, pushing the fiscal 2020 deficit to $1.88 trillion
And there is no end to the borrowing and spending in sight.
The US and China are reportedly getting closer to working out a trade deal. The Chinese have indicated they will import more US natural gas, semiconductors and soybeans. Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT to talk about it. He said that no matter what ultimately comes out of these trade negotiations, it’s not going to make America great again.
The government shutdown apparently didn’t save Uncle Sam any money. The US Treasury Department said it will borrow about $8 billion more than originally estimated in the first quarter of 2019 as deficits continue to spiral upward.
According to new Treasury Department projections, the US government will issue $365 billion through credit markets in the January-March quarter. This stacks on top of the $426 billion borrowed through credit markets in the October-December quarter.
