Peter's Blog

CPI Cools Modestly; How Will the Fed Play This?

As expected, the Consumer Price index cooled a bit thanks to falling gasoline prices. The question is will this give the Federal Reserve the excuse it needs bow out of the inflation fight? The Consumer Price Index for July was up 8.5% year-on-year. That was down from June’s 9.1% print and slightly below the 8.7% […]

The Fed’s Sophie’s Choice: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap July 15, 2020

It happened again. The CPI data for June came in hotter than expected. Prices rose at the fastest pace in this inflationary cycle. That pushes the Fed ever closer to having to make a very difficult choice. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the most recent CPI data […]

Another Hot CPI Read Backs the Fed Deeper into a Corner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the central bank have continued to talk tough about fighting inflation. But I’m pretty certain that in private, they were desperately hoping to see some cooling in the inflation data so they could start backing out of the ring. With a recession pretty clearly on the horizon […]

Peak Inflation Was a Fairytale Just Like Transitory Inflation

Inflation wasn’t transitory. And inflation hasn’t peaked. It’s more like peak inflation was transitory.

Peak Inflation Still Ahead as 97.5% of the CPI is Above the 12-Month Average

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for May came in scorching hot at 0.98% MoM and 8.62% YoY, beating expectations of 0.7% and 8.3% respectively. All prices rose in May with 9 of 11 categories rising faster than the 12-month trend, representing 97.5% of the total CPI.

CPI Day! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap June 10, 2022

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May came out this morning. The projection was for another hot headline number but some relief in core CPI. This would seem to indicate we’ve passed peak inflation. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharey explains why “good news” in the CPI data […]

Wishful Thinking: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast May 13, 2022

When we got the March CPI data last month, the mainstream crooned that it looked like we were at peak inflation. This was wishful thinking. The April CPI data that came out this week, along with the producer price numbers, indicate that we’re still climbing that inflation mountain. In this episode of the Friday Gold […]

Peak Inflation? Not So Fast!

The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 8.5% annually, the highest since December 1981. But the mainstream narrative was that inflation had probably peaked because core inflation, stripping out more volatile food and energy, “only” rose by 0.3%.  Mainstream pundits reasoned that the oil shock in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine primarily drove […]

Don’t Miss the “Real” Story on Rising Bond Yields

Earlier this week, the yield on the 30-year Treasury rose above 3% for the first time since April 2019 as the carnage in the bond market continues. Rising yields have put pressure on gold. The yellow metal flirted with $2,000 an ounce but has since fallen below the $1,950 resistance. Once again, investors are fixated […]

Americans Spending More, Getting Less and Borrowing More to Pay for It

American consumers are spending more, getting less, and borrowing more to fund this involuntary spending spree. Retail sales in March were 7% higher than they were in the stimulus-fueled March of 2021, but thanks to inflation, they didn’t get as much bang for their buck.