In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey engages in a little “I told you so!” discussing a couple of things he got right, including his assertion that the real problems would start after the debt ceiling deal and that it was important to keep your eye on the commercial real estate market. He also talks about the yo-yoing gold price this week.
I warned you.
I said when the fake debt ceiling fight ended, the real problems would begin.
Well, the debt ceiling fight is over, and here we are.
On the first working day after the so-called Fiscal Responsibility Act went into effect, the national debt surged by $359 billion.
Americans consider gold the second-best long-term investment option, according to a recent Gallup poll. Gold beat out stocks, bonds and savings accounts.
The perception that gold is the best investment over the long term rose from 15% in 2022 to 26% in the 2023 poll, overtaking stocks at the number two spot.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen keeps insisting that the banking system is “sound.” Is it though? Because it doesn’t look particularly sound.
In fact, we just witnessed the second-largest US bank failure ever.
Last week, the Bank of England suddenly pivoted. It gave up its inflation fight to rescue its pension funds and bond market. What exactly happened? And what does it tell us about the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight? Peter Schiff explained it all on his podcast.
Inflation is running hot. Economic data is running cold. Stocks and bonds are under pressure. The Fed is scrambling. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the trajectory of the economy. He said we’re on the cusp of the most obvious crisis that virtually nobody saw coming. The Federal Reserve made this bed. Now we have to lie in it.
With 2021 now in the rear-view mirror, I believe that future financial historians may regard it as the year of peak speculation.
While the history of American markets is littered with periods of irrational exuberance, none of those episodes can really match the current market for outright delusion and the blatant disregard for basic investment discipline.
After all the drama, Congress finally did what everyone knew it would do. It raised the debt ceiling by $480 billion in October. The Treasury wasted no time and quickly added $480 billion to the national debt in the second half of the month.
With this new debt tagged on, if the Fed has to raise rates to 6% to fight inflation, it would increase interest costs by $250 billion within 6 months and nearly $1 trillion within a few years. This is why the Fed must tell everyone that inflation is transitory.
Gold and bonds are both considered to be safe havens. But in a recent podcast, Peter explained why bonds are not a safe haven in an inflationary environment. In fact, bonds – including US Treasuries – are risk assets when inflation is running hot. If you want safety from inflation, you need to buy gold.
We got the highly anticipated employment report on Friday. It came in far below expectations. But despite weak economic data, bond yields are rising, along with the price of just about everything. Meanwhile, a gold rally fizzled. Peter Schiff talked about it during his podcast, explaining just how badly the markets are misinterpreting the data. When you add up plunging bonds yields, strong oil, and weak economic data – that equals stagflation.
