The CPI rose in May by 0.12%. Energy accounted for -0.25% of the move. This means without the move in Energy, the CPI would have risen by 0.37% which annualizes to a rate of 4.5%. This shows that inflation is still quite problematic.
The Treasury has an open data platform where they publish all of the data related to the US Treasury. This includes debt, spending, revenue, etc. Different data sets are updated at different frequencies. The official US Debt is updated monthly (typically by the fourth business day). This data can be seen in the chart below.
The April trade deficit came in at -$74.5B which was the largest trade deficit since October 2022.
Please note: the CoTs report was published 06/02/2023 for the period ending 05/30/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
Managed money has once again bailed on gold, which drove the price back below $2000 an ounce despite the “Other” group stepping in to absorb some of the selling.
The BLS reported that a whopping 339,000 jobs were added in May. This crushed median estimates of 190,000 jobs added. The Household Survey tells a very different story though, reporting a loss of 310,000 jobs.
The Fed reduced its balance sheet by $177 million last month. The majority of this was actually in Treasuries with less than 1-year maturity, totaling $102B. The next biggest reduction was in loans, totaling $40B.
As expected, gold has turned in a fairly strong start to the month on the COMEX. It’s below April but is still early in the contract.
Gold is wrapping up May which has slightly exceeded the last minor month in March.
Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in April fell $167B. As the chart below shows, this is now the 9th consecutive monthly drop. This is also the second-largest drop of all time, behind only last month.
The technical analysis last month highlighted the mixed environment at the time:
The indicators are once again giving some mixed signals. The price action is definitely needing further consolidation. However, other indicators suggest a market that is just getting started. … Either way, downside does seem limited at this point, especially considering all the bad news has been priced in.
The pullback from recent highs is still a healthy correction after the price action got a bit ahead of itself. So, how much more downside can we expect? Let’s look at some of the data.
