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The Federal Government ran a deficit of $249 billion in November. This is the highest monthly deficit since July 2021 if you ignore the one-time student loan forgiveness-driven deficit in September.
The October Trade Deficit increased for the second month in a row to $78.2B. The Deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the pull from the SPR has slowed in recent weeks.
The Treasury added $175B in new debt during November, hitting the debt ceiling of $31.4T. New debt issuance was focused on the short end of the curve with $145B in Treasury Bills issued.
While demand for physical gold and silver have been robust, managed money has dominated the market. So, is it buying this bull market? Please note: the CoTs report was published 12/02/2022 for the period ending 11/29/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Fed has a targeted balance sheet reduction of $95B a month. Up until this point, the Fed had failed to reach its target almost every month since QT began. In the latest month, the Fed made up for their recent shortfall with a big balance sheet reduction of $139B, exceeding their target by 50%! Despite the larger-than-expected […]
According to the BLS, the economy added 263k jobs in November with a modest revision up in October from 261k to 284k but a revision down in September from 365k to 269k. October was a beat against median expectations of 200k. The employment rate (black line) stayed flat at 3.7% while the labor force participation ticked […]
While the data this month looks weak, I think there is more to the story. My hypothesis is speculative in nature, so I will save it for the end after going through the data.
Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in October was negative for a third consecutive month, coming in at -$88B. This came on the heels of the largest drop in Money Supply ever last month.
Slowly but surely, physical supplies of gold and silver are being drained from the Comex. This has put pressure on the system. We are now seeing that pressure manifest itself in the data.
The price analysis last month suggested that more time was needed for a sustainable rally. It concluded: It looks like this market will turn sooner or later. Still, though, support has become resistance so the market has some work ahead of itself. Medium to long-term investors should feel very confident buying at current prices, even if […]
