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The Fed has a targeted balance sheet reduction of $95B a month. After reaching and exceeding this target last month, the Fed is back to undershooting. This should not come as a surprise given the turmoil in the bond market this year and the lack of liquidity.
This analysis typically starts with gold, but the activity in platinum is a major event that should not be overlooked. See the article What is the Comex? for a bit of backstory.
The 13-week annualized non-seasonally adjusted money supply growth rate is crashing at a time when it typically moves up. The market is becoming increasingly more vulnerable to a major event in the weeks or months ahead. Let’s take a look at the data…
While the price analysis last month was very neutral, the data this month points to a bit more positive momentum in the gold and silver markets. Last month I highlighted that gold was trapped between long-term support and resistance.
December gold is having the weakest major delivery month since February. This is surprising given the recent strength in gold and considering that last December saw quite a large number of contracts deliver (36k). I commented on this a few weeks ago, suggesting that the lower volume was a result of thinner supplies. I think the […]
The drainage of silver from Comex vaults since the start of the year has been nothing short of spectacular. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show […]
Before digging into history, let’s look at the recent data. The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for November came in at 0.08%. The YoY rate was 7.17%, below median forecast of 7.3%.
The Federal Government ran a deficit of $249 billion in November. This is the highest monthly deficit since July 2021 if you ignore the one-time student loan forgiveness-driven deficit in September.
The October Trade Deficit increased for the second month in a row to $78.2B. The Deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the pull from the SPR has slowed in recent weeks.
The Treasury added $175B in new debt during November, hitting the debt ceiling of $31.4T. New debt issuance was focused on the short end of the curve with $145B in Treasury Bills issued.
