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Original Analysis

POSTED ON January 12, 2023  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Based on the headline numbers, price inflation cooled again in December, boosting market optimism that the Federal Reserve will continue to ease off the pedal on its monetary tightening. But this could be setting the stage for more price inflation down the road.

And a deeper look at the data reveals that a lot of inflationary pressure remains despite the optimistic headlines.

POSTED ON December 21, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

While most central banks around the world have tightened monetary policy in an attempt to bring price inflation under control, Japan has done the exact opposite. But in a surprise move, the Bank of Japan widened its target range for 10-year Japanese bond yields, effectively raising the interest rate.

The move strengthened the yen, put more pressure on a weakening dollar, and rattled the global bond market.

POSTED ON December 19, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

‘Tis the season for Christmas specials.

I’m not going to lie – even as a grown man, I love watching Christmas specials. Snoopy decorating his dog house. The Grinch folding up the Christmas tree like an umbrella and stuffing it up the chimney. And Frosty the snowman melting in the greenhouse.

POSTED ON December 14, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. That pushed the federal funds rate to 4.5%. The last time rates were this high was in 2007. That’s bad news for an economy addicted to easy money.

While the pace of rate hikes slowed, the messaging coming out of the Fed was substantially the same as the November meeting.

POSTED ON December 14, 2022  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The Federal Reserve got just the news it needed to plausibly go forward with a soft pivot in its monetary policy and begin to slow its pace of rate hikes. But while price inflation appears to be retreating, it’s far from beat.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November came in lower than expected, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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