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Original Analysis

POSTED ON June 26, 2023  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

We tend to focus a lot on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, while the central bank’s balance sheet stays in the background. But the balance sheet arguably has more impact on the economy over the long run.

Since the Fed began hiking interest rates in March 2022, it has also shrunk the balance sheet. But balance sheet reduction hasn’t been aggressive. In fact, the decline in the balance sheet since the pandemic is like a drop of water in the ocean compared to the massive expansion we’ve seen since 2008.

POSTED ON June 21, 2023  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday (June 21). The Fed chief engaged in some more open-mouth operations, trying to guide monetary policy with words instead of actions.

To understand a few things he said, you have to read between the lines.

Oh, and he also got at least a couple of things wrong along the way.

POSTED ON June 19, 2023  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

The great anti-federalist Brutus wrote, “I can scarcely contemplate a greater calamity that could befall this country, than to be loaded with a debt exceeding their ability ever to discharge.”

And here we are.

With little fanfare, the national debt blew past $32 trillion last week.

POSTED ON June 15, 2023  - POSTED IN Original Analysis

As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) put rate hikes on pause at the June meeting, although it indicated we should expect additional hikes before the end of the year.

The question is how long will the pause last and will the next Fed move actually be a rate cut?

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