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May 23, 2023Original Analysis

What Are the Markets Getting Wrong?

We’ve talked about the recent selloff in gold. On the other side of the coin, the NASDAQ has made a string of 52-week highs. What is driving these market dynamics? The Fed. The markets generally believe that the Federal Reserve is finished hiking interest rates, or at least close enough to being done that a […]

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May 18, 2023Original Analysis

Household Debt Cracks $17 Trillion for First Time Ever

Total household debt eclipsed $17 trillion for the first time ever in the first quarter of 2023 as Americans wrestle with persistent price inflation. After charting the biggest rise in 20 years during the fourth quarter, household debt climbed again in Q1, rising by $148 billion. The 0.9% increase pushed total household debt to $17.05 […]

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May 18, 2023Original Analysis

Talk Is Cheap; What Will the Fed Actually Do?

Gold had dropped by over $100 in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the dollar rose to a 7-week high on May 17. If you’re thinking that this looks a lot like how gold and the dollar moved at the height of the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight, you’re right. That’s because the central bankers at the […]

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May 16, 2023Original Analysis

Media Bias Fails Investors and the Public

Was the producer price data that came out late last week really more good news on the inflation front? That’s certainly how the mainstream media spun it. But as was the case with the April CPI data, the mainstream spin didn’t necessarily reflect reality. In fact, there is a pro-government, pro-official narrative bias that pervades […]

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May 10, 2023Original Analysis

April CPI: Price Inflation Looks Pretty Sticky

Great news on the inflation front! At least if you believe the headlines. For example, “Consumer Prices in April Rise at the Slowest Annual Rate in Two Years.” But if you read about one inch below the headline, you’ll discover things aren’t so great. In fact, the actual data reveals price inflation is looking pretty […]

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May 3, 2023Original Analysis

What the Fed Says Today Really Isn’t Relevant Tomorrow

Is the rate hike pause in play? That question remains up for debate after the May Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting. But when you break it all down, the underlying economic reality is far more important than the messaging coming from Powell and Company. And the underlying economic reality is that inflation isn’t beat […]

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