We’ve seen a number of inversions in the Treasury bond yield curve over the last couple of weeks. This is a recession warning signal.
In his podcast, Peter Schiff said the markets are right about the looming recession. But they’re not getting the whole picture.
Gold looked very strong through mid-November. Trends in September and October had been pointing to a breakout. The market delivered sending gold up through $1870. Unfortunately, hard resistance kept the bulls in check, despite repeated attempts to breakthrough.
The previous price analysis presumed that a Brainard nomination at the Fed would be the catalyst needed to break through $1880. It also assumed that a Powell nomination, though expected, would bring gold back down to some extent.
Unfortunately, the gold market took the Powell news harder than expected.
Gold and bonds are both considered to be safe havens. But in a recent podcast, Peter explained why bonds are not a safe haven in an inflationary environment. In fact, bonds – including US Treasuries – are risk assets when inflation is running hot. If you want safety from inflation, you need to buy gold.
The Federal Reserve expanded its record holdings of US Treasuries in the fourth quarter of 2020 as it continued monetizing the massive federal debt.
The Federal Reserve added another $253 billion to its Treasury holdings in Q4 according to the Fed’s Treasury International Capital data released on Feb. 16. That brought the central bank’s US bond holdings to $4.7 trillion. The Federal Reserve now holds a record 17.5% of all US debt.
Over the last year, the US government had borrowed over $4.2 trillion. The national debt now stands well above $27 trillion. There is no end in sight to the borrowing and spending and that raises a significant question: who is going to buy all of the bonds necessary to finance the government spending machine?
Not too long ago, Uncle Sam could count on foreign investors to gobble up a big chunk of his IOUs, but times are changing. In 2008, foreign investors held more than half of the outstanding Treasury debt. Today, that amount has plunged to the lowest level since the turn of the century.
The US government has borrowed $4.2 trillion in the last 12 months, pushing the total national debt to over $27 trillion. In order for Uncle Sam to borrow, somebody has to lend. So, who is buying all of these government bonds?
Foreign and domestic investors, commercial banks and US government entities all buy US debt, but increasingly, the Federal Reserve is backstopping the market and making this borrowing binge possible.
Celsius Network, founder and CEO Alex Mashinsky calls the bond market, “the biggest bubble that hasn’t burst yet.” And when the massive bond bubble pops, that’s when the real earthquake begins.
The US Treasury Department is pumping out bonds like there’s no tomorrow. It announced this week that it plans to borrow $2.99 trillion in this quarter alone. The projected borrowing for fiscal 2020 comes in at a staggering $4.48 trillion.
It’s been a wild ride on Wall Street this week — all downhill. Stocks entered correction territory Thursday and are on track for the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. As Peter has put it, this stock market is a bubble looking for a pin. Is the coronavirus the pin? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about this chaotic week in the stock market, the bond market and the gold market.
As turmoil continues in the markets with stocks selling off due to continued fears over coronavirus and its potential economic impact, Peter Schiff says gold is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do — serving as a safe haven and a store of value.
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Fox Business Claman Countdown along with Stephen Guilfoyle and Luke Rahbari to talk about gold, bonds and coronavirus.
Stocks have sold off two straight days as investors pile into safe-havens due to coronavirus fears. Yields on both 10-year and 30-year Treasuries fell to record lows this week. Gold has also gotten a healthy boost over the last few days. The yellow metal pushed to $1,690 per ounce on Monday, but gave up some of its gains on Tuesday in the midst of profit-taking.