Years ago, markets used to pay a lot of attention to the money supply and trade deficits. Now, these numbers barely get a passing mention. In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff said he thinks what is old will become new again and trade deficits and money printing will once again come front and center.
Peter Schiff has been talking a lot about the prospects of a trade deal lately. His point: an end to the trade war isn’t going to heal America’s economic wounds. And those wounds? Well, they’re self-inflicted.
Peter appeared on RT again on Monday (March 4) to hammer home this point.
The US and China are reportedly getting closer to working out a trade deal. The Chinese have indicated they will import more US natural gas, semiconductors and soybeans. Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT to talk about it. He said that no matter what ultimately comes out of these trade negotiations, it’s not going to make America great again.
In a podcast earlier this month, Peter Schiff talked about the “twin deficits” of national debt and trade. We’ve talked a lot about the federal debt spiral, and there has even been some discussion about it in the mainstream. But almost nobody is paying attention to the growing trade deficit. Peter is an exception. When the August numbers came out earlier this month, Peter noted it was the largest trade deficit in merchandise since the summer of 2008. And what happened right after the summer of 2008? The collapse of 2008.
The reason the trade deficit got that big is before the collapse, we had a bubble. We had a consumer debt binge where all the cheap money that was being created was feeding imports because Americans were taking their incomes, or their cheap money, and buying imported products. And so the big trade deficit was evidence of the bubble. And of course, the big trade deficits in and of themselves are unstainable.”
Antonius Aquinas has also taken note of the trade deficit. In the following article, he points out that tariffs aren’t going to make America Great Again. We need savings and investment, not a trade war.
As we head into the month of October, it’s interesting to note that two of the worst stock market crashes in history during this month. Of course, we had the 1929 Wall Street crash that kicked off the Great Depression, and there was also the Black Monday stock market crash in 1987.
As Peter Schiff noted in his latest podcast, given that stock market valuations are higher today then they were at those prior peaks, you would think there would be more concern about the possibility of another October surprise. But there seems to be very little worry out there. Nevertheless, Peter raised an interesting question, could the twin deficits in trade and the federal budget portend another October crash?
Everybody seems bullish on the economy. Nobody is worried about anything, even though there is everything to be worried about. Peter Schiff said he feels like he’s in Alice in Wonderland. In his most recent podcast, he referenced a Morgan Stanley analyst interviewed by CNBC.
She’s unquestioningly bullish on every front. Everything is bullish. There is nothing at all to worry about. In fact, the only thing she said that anybody is worried about is that there’s nothing to worry about. It’s that things are so good, they’re wondering what are we missing. Maybe we should be a little bit worried because nobody is worried because everything is good. I mean, there are so many things to worry about. That is the reality. But they’re not worried about any of them.”
Stock market mania continues unabated. But in the latest episode of the Schiff Report, Peter Schiff warns that twin deficits may soon doom the stock market boom.
If we have a return of the twin deficits as a problem in 2018 – I’m talking about the budget deficit and the trade deficit – twin deficits. You know the last time that was a big problem? It was in 1987. What happened in 1987? We got a stock market crash. I know that was just over 20 years ago, but what was happening then reminds me a lot of what’s happening now. We had the stock market roaring. Everybody was confident. But people were overlooking these gigantic problems until they couldn’t overlook them anymore and then it ended in a spectacular crash.”