The January Trade Deficit saw a slight increase compared to December, coming in at -$68.3B vs -$67.2B in the prior month. After peaking at -$106B in March of last year, the Trade Deficit has returned to a more stable range between -$60B and -$80B.
The December Trade Deficit increased after a major drop in November. The total came in at $67B which was 10% greater than November’s $61B, but still well below the 6-month high from October of $77B. It is also below the $79B Trade Deficit from December 2021.
The mainstream is optimistic about both the economy and the Fed’s fight against inflation. In his podcast, Peter Schiff took apart the mainstream narrative, explaining that the economy is much weaker than most people realize and the Fed is nowhere near victory in the war on inflation.
The November Trade Deficit saw the first contraction in four months and actually fell to the lowest level since October 2020. This was primarily driven by a collapse in Imported Goods as shown below.
The October Trade Deficit increased for the second month in a row to $78.2B. The Deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the pull from the SPR has slowed in recent weeks.
A shrinking trade deficit was the primary reason GDP jumped in the third quarter. But that trade deficit relief is already reversing.
The October trade deficit swelled to $78.2 billion, a 5.4% increase. It was the second straight month of trade deficit growth.
The September Trade Deficit increased for the first time in 6 months to -$73.3B. The deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
As shown by the chart below, the increase this month was from a drop in Exports combined with an increase in Imports. The current value is still well below the record set back in March.
The August Trade Deficit fell for a fifth straight month to -$67.4B. The Deficit is now down an 37% from the high struck back in March.
As shown by the chart below, this is mainly driven by a fall in Imports as Exports have stayed relatively flat.
The trade deficit fell in July to -$70.7 billion. It was the fourth straight month of drops. While the deficit continues to fall from all-time highs, it is very large relative to deficits prior to 2022. Despite the large 33% fall from the -$107 billion in March, the current deficit would have been an all-time record as recently as last June. It is also larger than July 2021.
The June trade deficit fell for a fourth straight month to -$79.6B.
While the deficit continues to drop from all-time highs, it is still larger than any month before 2022. June eclipsed December 2021 by $750M. December was a new record then, so the current deficit should be put into the context of longer history despite coming off recent highs.
