The price analysis two months ago concluded that a neutral market had been found between $1800 and $1850 and was waiting to see a break of resistance or support. It leaned bullish with indicators showing the down move had run its course but it also highlighted the risk that a drop below $1800 and $1750 brings $1680 into play. Last month concluded that even though gold was still trapped between $1800 and $1850 it had built up solid support. Unfortunately, gold fell through the trap door at $1800 and tested $1680 last week. Has a bottom been found? Too soon to tell, but a look at the indicators could give some clues.
After a big miss on the Powell/Brainard nominations in November, the price analysis has been fairly accurate. Identifying the initial breakout above $1800, mentioning that $1900 was fragile support, and last month concluding that gold had found a bottom around $1800.
For the past month, gold has been consolidating within a tight range around $1850. The data suggests the next move is most likely up. Lots of indicators have bottomed, which leaves little downside remaining. The market has also priced in an extremely aggressive Fed and held up very well over that time.
The price analysis last month identified the near-term risk that gold could fall below $1880 and even $1850 despite a medium-term bullish outlook. The $1800 level was identified as a key marker for keeping the bull move intact. So far, that has held and produced a solid bounce back towards $1850 which becomes the next hurdle.
Gold is currently tucked between fragile support and weak resistance.
Both gold and silver have been on a wild ride for the past several weeks. The last technical analysis showed how gold had broken through the lengthy consolidation pattern between $1750-$1800, with the Ukraine crisis pushing the metal through $1900.
This article was written by Joel Bauman, SchiffGold Senior Precious Metals Specialist. Any views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold. The article focuses on the gold market through the lens of technical analysis. Technical analysis is a subjective form of study based on historical price patterns. The analysis offered is for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
