Optimism is driving the markets. Most investors seem to believe the economy is strong. The consumer is resilient. Price inflation is easing. And most people think the Federal Reserve is finished hiking rates. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained why this investor optimism is at odds with reality.
Most people think everything is fine. The Fed is getting inflation under control and soon they’ll be able to cut interest rates, keeping the economy from falling into a deep recession. In his podcast, Peter Schiff poured cold water on this narrative. He explains why the Fed won’t be able to repeat the magic it pulled off after the financial crisis and COVID.
John Hussman predicted the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Now he’s saying the current stock market bubble will “end in tears.”
In a recent note, the Hussman Trust president said the S&P 500 needs to plunge 64% in order to “restore run-of-the-mill long-term prospective returns.”
June continued a stock market rally that produced big gains through the first half of the year. But what exactly is driving this rally and is it really justified by the economic fundamentals? Peter breaks it down in a recent podcast and concludes that this is likely a bear market rally.
We’ve talked about the recent selloff in gold. On the other side of the coin, the NASDAQ has made a string of 52-week highs. What is driving these market dynamics?
The Fed.
The markets generally believe that the Federal Reserve is finished hiking interest rates, or at least close enough to being done that a rate cut is on the horizon.
And they’re wrong.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell by 1.2% in March. It was the 12th straight month of declines in the LEI.
On the surface, everything still looks fine at the COMEX, but the data reveals more going on.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
We saw a big rotation into risk assets after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Then we had another big shock to the markets when the non-farm payroll report came out much stronger than expected. In his podcast, Peter Schiff broke down the market reaction to last week’s events and reveals that while risk was on, economic understanding was off.
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s Unfiltered on Fox News to talk about the economy, inflation, the stock market, the Federal Reserve and investing in 2023. Peter said the recession that everybody denies exists is going to get worse, and so is inflation.
Since 2008, we have been in an era of unprecedented money printing and interest rate suppression. Now the cost of all of that easy money is coming due.
