Inflation is running hot. Economic data is running cold. Stocks and bonds are under pressure. The Fed is scrambling. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the trajectory of the economy. He said we’re on the cusp of the most obvious crisis that virtually nobody saw coming. The Federal Reserve made this bed. Now we have to lie in it.
As governments shut down the economy in response to COVID-19 and the Federal Reserve put money printing into hyperdrive, we warned that it was a recipe for stagflation. Today, it looks like stagnation is here.
Stagflation is an economic environment with rapidly rising prices, a weak labor market, and low GDP growth. It’s looking more and more like we have all three elements.
Last week’s jobs numbers came in weaker than expected. September’s CPI came in hotter than expected. That puts the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place. Does it tighten monetary policy to fight inflation? Or does it keep stimulating to boost the economy? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the data and says it’s about time for the central bank to pick its poison.
Government policies – from shutdowns, to stimulus, to vaccine mandates – in response to the coronavirus pandemic have thrown the US economy completely out of whack. Looking at employment reveals just how messed up the economy has become.
The number of Americans quitting their jobs surged to a record high in August. According to the Labor Department Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, job quits increased by 242,000 in August, pushing the total to a record 4.3 million. The quits rate surged to an all-time high of 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July.
We got the highly anticipated employment report on Friday. It came in far below expectations. But despite weak economic data, bond yields are rising, along with the price of just about everything. Meanwhile, a gold rally fizzled. Peter Schiff talked about it during his podcast, explaining just how badly the markets are misinterpreting the data. When you add up plunging bonds yields, strong oil, and weak economic data – that equals stagflation.
The August jobs numbers came in much lower than expected, a kick in the teeth for those touting the “improving economy” narrative. Meanwhile, personal incomes continue to grow but rising prices are eating up that growth and then some.
The economic data suggest the Fed’s plan is failing and stagflation looms on the horizon.
GDP for the second quarter disappointed, coming in at an annualized rate of 6.5%. Is this a sign of impending stagflation?
While 6.5% growth looks good on the surface, economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected annualized GDP to chart around 9.1%. This was a huge miss and indicates the economy isn’t growing nearly as fast as everybody assumed.
Prices are going up. The Federal Reserve is printing money at an unprecedented rate. The US government continues to borrow and spend at a torrid pace. As Peter Schiff put it in a recent podcast, we’re adrift in a sea of inflation. Gold is supposed to be an inflation hedge. So, why isn’t the price of gold climbing right now?
In a nutshell, rising bond yields have created significant headwinds for gold. And the mainstream is reading rising yields and their relationship to gold all wrong.
We ended last week with some weaker than expected economic data – particularly the jobs numbers, but the stock market continues to go up. These days, the mainstream reacts to everything as good news. No matter what the data suggests, everybody seems to think things will come up smelling roses because of stimulus. But in a recent podcast, Peter said all of this smells more like stagflation.
Silver tends to get lost gold’s spotlight but there are reasons to consider adding silver to your portfolio as well. The silver-gold ratio remains at historically high levels. Practically speaking, this means silver is on sale. The supply and demand dynamics also look good for the white metal. Demand is up and global mine output fell last year.
There have been financial commentators, pundits, and asset managers who have stated that during periods of stagflation — low real GDP growth and high inflation — silver has underperformed gold. But as Dan Kurtz of DK Analytics shows, that conventional wisdom doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.
