There are a number of signals that the US economy is getting weaker even as inflation gets stronger.
In other words, we are hurtling toward stagflation.
Most people seem to think that tighter monetary policy will bring on a recession, but they believe that it will solve the inflation problem. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained why they’ve got it half right. We are heading toward a recession, but it’s not going to solve the inflation problem. In reality, we’re heading for stagflation.
On Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed cut its GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2022 to zero.
Just a few days ago, the estimate was for 0.6% growth. That was down from 1.3% just a few days before that.
This is not an encouraging trend.
The Federal Reserve held its first FOMC meeting of 2022. The central bank didn’t do anything, but the tone coming out of the meeting was widely perceived as even more “hawkish.” Everybody is convinced the Fed really means it now. The inflation fight is on. Is it though? Host Mike Maharrey talks about the messaging and perceptions coming out of this meeting and calls it a big flim-flam.
Peter Schiff was a guest on the Wharton Business Daily podcast produced by the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Peter talked about inflation and how it will impact the US economy moving forward. He said ultimately, we’re heading toward stagflation.
Inflation is running hot. Economic data is running cold. Stocks and bonds are under pressure. The Fed is scrambling. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the trajectory of the economy. He said we’re on the cusp of the most obvious crisis that virtually nobody saw coming. The Federal Reserve made this bed. Now we have to lie in it.
As governments shut down the economy in response to COVID-19 and the Federal Reserve put money printing into hyperdrive, we warned that it was a recipe for stagflation. Today, it looks like stagnation is here.
Stagflation is an economic environment with rapidly rising prices, a weak labor market, and low GDP growth. It’s looking more and more like we have all three elements.
Last week’s jobs numbers came in weaker than expected. September’s CPI came in hotter than expected. That puts the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place. Does it tighten monetary policy to fight inflation? Or does it keep stimulating to boost the economy? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the data and says it’s about time for the central bank to pick its poison.
Government policies – from shutdowns, to stimulus, to vaccine mandates – in response to the coronavirus pandemic have thrown the US economy completely out of whack. Looking at employment reveals just how messed up the economy has become.
The number of Americans quitting their jobs surged to a record high in August. According to the Labor Department Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, job quits increased by 242,000 in August, pushing the total to a record 4.3 million. The quits rate surged to an all-time high of 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July.