According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 contracted by $83B in April. The Money Supply analysis last month highlighted the slowing money supply growth rate, but this is the first contraction seen since January 2010.
The price analysis last month identified the near-term risk that gold could fall below $1880 and even $1850 despite a medium-term bullish outlook. The $1800 level was identified as a key marker for keeping the bull move intact. So far, that has held and produced a solid bounce back towards $1850 which becomes the next hurdle.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
There is a lot of spin out there when it comes to economic news. You get spin from the corporate media, You get spin from government officials. And you get spin from central bankers. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey spins the spin, breaking down the media take on the retail sales numbers and Jerome Powell’s spin during a talk this week. Whom should we believe? Listen and decide.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
When we got the March CPI data last month, the mainstream crooned that it looked like we were at peak inflation. This was wishful thinking. The April CPI data that came out this week, along with the producer price numbers, indicate that we’re still climbing that inflation mountain. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the data and discusses how it could impact the trajectory of Fed monetary policy and the economy.
Tax revenues have been on the rise for about 18 months. As speculated previously, if this windfall was temporary, it would have shown up with a deficit in April due to a higher than normal tax returns surge. April is historically a positive month for the Treasury, but a surge in tax returns leading to a deficit would have suggested the past year was potentially a fluke.
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for April came in higher than expectations at 0.34% MoM and 8.28% YoY. The main driver for the MoM slowdown was a fall in Energy prices.
Virginia and Alabama both extended their sales tax exemptions on precious metal bullion this year, relieving some of the tax burdens on investors, and taking a step toward treating gold and silver as money instead of as commodities.
According to the BLS, the economy added 428k jobs in April. This exactly matched the March number after it was revised down by 3k. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6%. The Labor Force Participation rate dropped from 62.4% to 62.2%. YoY, this April is up 165k jobs compared to last April.
