The dollar index recently hit a 20-year high, so this might seem to be an odd time to talk about a dollar decline. But Rockefeller Institute Chairman and Financial Times columnist Ruchir Sharma recently wrote an article arguing that a post-dollar world is coming.
China appears to be chipping away at dollar dominance.
While there is no indication that the dollar is in imminent danger of toppling from its perch as the global reserve currency, more central banks are warming up to the yuan.
Last year, we reported extensively on a push toward de-dollarization by countries like Russia and China and their desire to undermine the ability of the US to weaponize the dollar as a foreign policy tool. Europe was even starting to push to dethrone the dollar as the reserve currency.
With the Federal Reserve running the dollar printing press at full speed and the US government expanding the national debt into the stratosphere, there are renewed calls for a currency to replace the dollar as the world reserve.
The percentage of US dollars held as currency reserves globally dropped to the lowest level in nearly six years in the second quarter of 2019 according to the latest IMF data. Meanwhile, Chinese yuan made up the biggest percentage of reserves ever.
The dollar’s shrinking share of global reserves comes as countries like Russia and China move toward de-dollarization in an effort to undermine the ability of the US to weaponize the dollar as a foreign policy tool. The global gold rush on the part of central banks is part of this movement.
During a recent interview on RT America, Peter Schiff said investors should stay away from the dollar, not only because of the looming recession, but because its days as a reserve currency could be numbered.
Is this just hyperbole, or could the US dollar really fall off its throne? America’s enemies would certainly like to see it happen. And increasingly, so would its friends.
Earlier this month, we reported a move by China that could foreshadow the end of the US dollar as the world reserve currency. The Chinese announced the launch of a gold-backed, yuan-denominated oil futures contract. The move potentially creates a way for oil exporters to circumvent US dollar denominated benchmarks by trading in yuan. The contracts will be priced in yuan, but convertible to gold.
More broadly speaking, Russia and China seem to be setting the stage to set up an alternative the international US dollar system. Many analysts believe the two countries are buying gold specifically to minimize their dependence on the US dollar. Russia and China are also reportedly moving closer to developing a broader gold-based trading system.
In an article originally published on the Mises Wire, Ronald-Peter Stöferle digs deeper into the possibility of “de-dollarization.”
The world is looking for alternatives to the dollar — and finds them more and more often.”