Peter recently appeared on Market Overtime with Oliver Renick for an interview. In their wide-ranging discussion, Peter speaks on monetary policy, the reliability of inflation data, and reasons to avoid Bitcoin.
When John Bogle died in 2019, people around the world mourned. Bogle created the Vanguard Group and made the index fund mainstream. Index funds are investment vehicles that invest in a class of investments as a whole, rather than trying to predict what specific stocks or securities will do best. So an investor could invest in an index fund that represented American companies as a whole rather than trying to predict whether Disney, Apple, or Meta would have a better quarter.
The collapse of Chinese real estate giant Evergrande is being called, by some, China’s “Lehman Moment.” Whether or not it will be enough to trigger a cratering of China’s broader economy, it’s a massive reality check for a country that has transformed itself over the decades with unprecedentedly massive urbanization and economic growth. Evergrande, since its creation in 1996, has been at the forefront of that rise.
Peter Schiff recently appeared on Real America with Dan Ball to talk about the latest employment data and the state of the real estate market. We know there is a lot of doom and gloom in the headlines, but Peter said the situation is actually doomier and gloomier than the headlines suggest.
Banks are more vulnerable to the housing market now than they were in 2007.
Most people in the mainstream will scoff at that statement. They’ll tell you that the situation is very different today. After all, we don’t have a big problem in the subprime mortgage market. We’re not seeing a big spike in defaults. That’s true. The problem is different this time. And it’s actually worse.
A lot of the economic data this month looks strong. But when you dig a little deeper, you find that this “strength” is an illusion.
Following is a breakdown of several of these data points with some help from our friends at Passant Gardant.
Since 2008, we have been in an era of unprecedented money printing and interest rate suppression. Now the cost of all of that easy money is coming due.
When you change the definition of words, it can create confusion. This is exactly why politicians have worked so hard to change the definition of inflation. As a result, a lot of people are very confused. In this Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey explains how the meaning of inflation has changed and why it matters. He also talks about signals flashing from the bond and real estate markets.
The Federal Reserve launched its fight against inflation earlier this month, but it wasn’t exactly shock and awe. The Fed raised interest rates by just a quarter percent. Peter Schiff called it the most anticipated and least significant rate hike ever. Meanwhile, the central bank continued to expand its balance sheet.
While the Fed’s tiny monetary policy adjustments won’t likely put a dent in inflation, they are already having an impact on the economy. Last week, mortgage rates charted their biggest weekly increase in 11 years.
How long will it take for rising rates to pop the housing bubble?
Are we heading toward housing crisis 2.0?
That remains to be seen.
Two things are for certain. This is a massive housing bubble. And the Fed is holding the pin.
