The markets have obsessed over what the Fed is saying while almost completely ignoring what it’s actually doing.
After the June FOMC meeting, markets reacted to the hint that the Fed might start raising interest rates in 2023 instead of 2024. But of course, it didn’t move rates up from zero. And while the Fed apparently talked about talking about tapering its quantitative easing bond-buying program, it continues to expand its balance sheet at a torrid pace.
The US government continues to run massive budget deficits. That means it has to sell bonds to finance the debt. So, who’s buying all these Treasuries?
The Federal Reserve is buying a lot of them as it continues to monetize the ever-growing federal debt. Between March 2020 and March 2021, the central bank monetized more than half of the massive pandemic debt.
Do you feel stimulated? Congress got the deal done on a $1.9 trillion stimulus package this week. But the markets continue to behave as if there is no inflation threat with all this borrowing, spending and money printing. On this week’s Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the stimulus bill. He tells you what’s in it and who will pay for it. He also talks about rising prices the mainstream can’t seem to find.
Gold faced more selling pressure this week as the mainstream continues to labor under the misguided notion that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected to deal with inflation. Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey has been arguing the Fed is not going to tighten; it’s going to ramp up quantitative easing to keep rates down. This week, he shares some insights from a mainstream analyst who gets it too.
On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced plans to dramatically increase its quantitative easing program. Was this an Aussie canary in the coal mine foreshadowing what’s coming down the pike from the Federal Reserve? Peter Schiff talked about the RBA’s move in his podcast. He said, for now, the Australian central bank is doing the Fed’s dirty work.
Jerome Powell was on Capitol Hill this week (at least virtually) to talk to Congress. During his two days of testimony, the Fed chair insisted that there is no inflation. In fact, he claimed it will take years for the central bank to reach its 2% target. SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey says Powell is lying. But if you listen closely and read between the lines, you can dig a bit of truth out from the lies.
Interest rates continue to rise. Gold continues to languish. The stock market bubble continues to inflate. In his podcast, Peter Schiff argues that investors are reading the tea leaves all wrong. They think rising rates are going to force the Fed to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected. But Peter says there is a reality out there that nobody wants to acknowledge.
After a dismal November, gold and silver are starting to show some signs of life. But what caused the big drop in the price of precious metals last month? Was it warranted? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey looks at the economic and monetary fundamentals and tries to bring us back to reality. He argues that despite the optimism about a coronavirus vaccine, nothing will fundamentally change.
The US government is increasingly relying on the Federal Reserve to prop up the Treasury market and absorb the trillions of dollars in bonds it’s issuing in order to fund its massive budget deficits. The Fed now holds a record 16.5% of US debt. And it’s going to have to buy trillions of dollars of additional Treasuries in 2021 to keep pace with government borrowing.
In other words, there is no end in sight to quantitative easing. In fact, the central bank will have to double its scheduled monthly QE in 2021 to catch up to where it was in 2020.
The US government has borrowed $4.2 trillion in the last 12 months, pushing the total national debt to over $27 trillion. In order for Uncle Sam to borrow, somebody has to lend. So, who is buying all of these government bonds?
Foreign and domestic investors, commercial banks and US government entities all buy US debt, but increasingly, the Federal Reserve is backstopping the market and making this borrowing binge possible.