The price analysis last month titled Gold and Silver are Setting up for a Strong Advance in 2023 highlighted that both metals had shaken off the weakness and looked to be headed higher. It concluded by saying…
While the price analysis last month was very neutral, the data this month points to a bit more positive momentum in the gold and silver markets.
Last month I highlighted that gold was trapped between long-term support and resistance.
The price analysis last month suggested that more time was needed for a sustainable rally. It concluded:
It looks like this market will turn sooner or later. Still, though, support has become resistance so the market has some work ahead of itself. Medium to long-term investors should feel very confident buying at current prices, even if the price action remains choppy in the short-term.
The price analysis of gold and silver last month discussed the technical damage done and highlighted how support had become resistance. It concluded, “When everything is so lopsidedly bearish, it can signify capitulation. That said, beware of trying to catch a falling knife. Because of the technical drivers in gold and silver, moves tend to extend beyond what seems possible as momentum carries the move forward… The paper market is driving prices and the spec traders don’t see a Fed pivot anywhere, which suggests more time before a turnaround.”
The short-term picture is still rather mixed despite the incredible physical demand on the Comex. The data below helps provide some context.
The price analysis last month titled Caution Warranted in the Short Term, highlighted the potential risk in gold and silver after a rough July and early August. It concluded the path was much less clear. There were two possible paths forward: Gold could be range bound again between $1750-$1800, or, a hawkish Fed at the Jackson Hole summit could potentially crack $1750 and open up the door for new lows. As it turns out, it was the latter. The gold miners are definitely anticipating this.
The price analysis last month concluded that the market might have seen capitulation. It suggested the FOMC and GDP could spark a short squeeze based on the overly bearish COTs report. While gold rebounded strongly, it ran into stiff resistance and more hawkish talk by the Fed. With a large pullback from recent highs, is gold about to fall through another floor, or is it building support within the old range of $1750-$1800 where it was trapped for months?
The price analysis last month highlighted how gold was trying to carve out fragile support around $1900 and breakthrough resistance at $1950.
Gold found a spark and broke through $1950, but has been unable to hold above it in the wake of “hawkish” Fed comments. Now, $1900 is being tested and should give clues to the next move. So far, it has held with only a slight dip into the $1800s before recovering. A hard bounce here would prove near-term bullish, but if the price breaks down below $1880 it could be a few more months until gold musters the strength to take on $2000 again.
Gold looked very strong through mid-November. Trends in September and October had been pointing to a breakout. The market delivered sending gold up through $1870. Unfortunately, hard resistance kept the bulls in check, despite repeated attempts to breakthrough.
The previous price analysis presumed that a Brainard nomination at the Fed would be the catalyst needed to break through $1880. It also assumed that a Powell nomination, though expected, would bring gold back down to some extent.
Unfortunately, the gold market took the Powell news harder than expected.
The analysis last month showed that selling exhaustion may be near in the gold market. Since then, gold continues to be range-bound between $1750 and $1800 running up against both solid resistance and support. Meanwhile, silver has shown a mini-breakout.
The $1800 level for gold is in play this week and could open the door for a big move if it gets through it soon.
