Oil and gold are marching in opposite directions. If history is any indication, that’s not good news for the US economy.
Oil prices fell sharply starting late last week and through the early part of this week. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude touched $53.25, the lowest level since February. Meanwhile, the price of gold surged, blasting through the $1,300 mark to reach prices not seen in more than a year.
Typically, a strong dollar is considered one of the greatest “enemies” of gold and precious metals prices. In fact, a relatively strong dollar has created headwinds for gold for months.
Another interesting commodity we can take a look at is oil. Historically, oil and the USD have a negatively correlated relationship, with oil being one of the most inflation-sensitive commodities out there. However, this wasn’t the case late in April. Oil surged to around $65/barrel (WTI). The price has eased a bit since, but it is still trading in the $62/barrell range.
Peter Schiff recently appeared on RT to talk about rising oil prices, how they relate to inflation and what it could mean for the US economy.
In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap, Mike Maharrey covers some more bad signs in the economy, including rising oil prices, an unexpected drop in retail sales and a surge in negative-yielding government bonds. At best, it looks like the economy is slowing down. Or it could be the prelude to the next crisis. This raises an important question: who’s going to save us? Mike suggests we probably shouldn’t be counting on the politicians or the central bankers.
In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff hit a number of subjects including oil prices, bond prices, Bitcoin, the dollar and tariffs. Peter said he thinks we’re seeing a lot of movement in a number of markets that are counter to the long-term trends. For instance, oil dropped late last week, but he expects it’s long-term trend to continue upward. The dollar has picked up strength, but the broader trend is toward a weaker dollar. And bond yields fell, but the overall trajectory for interest rates is up.
Just like that, it appears the trade war is over. Although, as Peter Schiff pointed out in his latest podcast, it wasn’t really much of a war.
I don’t think I should call it a ceasefire because nobody actually fired a shot, and it’s been more of a war of words than a real conventional battle. I mean, basically a lot of saber-rattling, not a lot of fencing. But I think what happened today is we called a truce. Both sides sheathed their sabers and agreed that there’s not going to be a war.”
China wants to dethrone the dollar and it could take a step in that direction before the end of the year.
According to numerous reports, China is prepared to launch a yuan-denominated oil futures contract before Christmas. Last week, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange successfully completed a fifth round of yuan-backed oil futures testing. According to a report by RT, the organization has met all the listing requirements and is set for an official launch.
A recent move by China could take a big step toward dethroning the US petrodollar.
The Chinese have announced the launch of a gold-backed, yuan-denominated oil futures contract. The move potentially creates a way for oil exporters to circumvent US dollar denominated benchmarks by trading in yuan. The contracts will be priced in yuan, but convertible to gold. An article in the Nikkei Asian Review explains the significance of the move.