Even as the Fed talked about tightening monetary policy, the money supply grew at the fastest pace since last winter.
In the latest period, M2 increased by $263 billion. This is a major jump compared to the last two months and is the highest month-over-month growth since February. The same period in 2020 saw M2 only grow $62B.
The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.33 trillion, up $111 billion from the prior month-end.
The chart below shows how the Fed Balance sheet has grown by instrument over the last 18 months. The major surge from COVID can be clearly seen as $2.5T was added within 2 months. The monthly changes since then reflect QE on autopilot.
M2 Money Supply is measured by the Federal Reserve to calculate the amount of money in the financial system. Historically, the term inflation was defined as an expansion of the money supply that generally led to higher prices. Therefore increases in M2 is the measure of inflation. This analysis reviews the changes in money supply as a potential indication of future price increases.
M2 Money Supply is measured by the Federal Reserve to calculate the amount of Money in the financial system. The Fed defines M2 as: Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.
Historically, the term inflation was defined as an expansion of the money supply that generally led to higher prices. Therefore increases in M2 is the measure of inflation. Increases in M2
The money supply grew by 37.08% year-on-year in November based on the True Money Supply Measure (TMS). It was effectively the same rate of growth we saw in October and remains near September’s all-time high rate of growth.
The staggering growth in the money supply becomes more clear when you compare this year with last. TMS growth in November 2019 was just 5.9%.
The money supply continues to grow at a torrid rate.
Based on the “true” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS), the money supply grew by 37.08% year-on-year in October. That was down just slightly from September’s record rate of 37.54%.
To hear Federal Reserve officials, politicians and mainstream financial media pundits tell it – there is no inflation. In fact, the consumer price index remains “stubbornly low” according to those who view rising prices as an economic good. But inflation defined correctly is rampant. In fact, it is at all-time record levels.
Strictly speaking, inflation is an increasing money supply, and by that measure, it has set records for five straight months.
What is inflation?
When analysts, politicians and pundits talk about inflation, they usually mean rising consumer prices as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). Peter Schiff and Jim Rickards debated this on Kitko news. Rickards also used this definition, insisting there is no inflation right now. Peter said, “Of course there is. The Fed is inflating like crazy.”
The ensuing debate led Peter to address the issue of inflation on his podcast. Peter called the modern mainstream definition of inflation a “false” definition.
The money supply growth rate surged to an all-time high in April as the Federal Reserve created cash at an unprecedented rate through quantitative easing and other money-creating monetary policies.
According to Ryan McMaken at the Mises Institute, the only time the Fed has come close to this level of money creation was in the 1970s – the era of stagflation.