Hedge fund king Ray Dalio says we are on the cusp of a “paradigm shift” and investors should buy gold.
In a post at LinkedIn, Dalio described paradigms as relatively long periods when markets and market relationships operate in a certain way. Eventually, the paradigms become “overdone” and we see a major shift.
In paradigm shifts, most people get caught overextended doing something overly popular and get really hurt. On the other hand, if you’re astute enough to understand these shifts, you can navigate them well or at least protect yourself against them.”
Jerome Powell took center stage this week and the Federal Reserve chair didn’t do anything to dampen expectations of a rate cut. That sent both stocks and gold higher. The yellow metal pushed back above $1,400 after tanking in the wake of last Friday’s June jobs report and stocks swooned. Everybody seems to love Easy Street. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down what the Fed chair said and didn’t say. He also debunks the “there is no inflation” myth and highlights some other interesting news in the gold markets.
Gold has gone through some wild mood swings this week. It plunged back below $1,400 per ounce on Monday only to rally and climb back above that key level on Tuesday. What’s driving these fluctuations? And what should investors be focusing on? Mike Maharrey talks about it in this week’s Friday Gold wrap. He also touches on some positive signs in the silver market, the global movement toward de-dollarization, and he remembers a friend of liberty who passed away this week.
The Dow Jones just had its best June since 1938. Overall, stocks were up around 7% last month. It was also the best first half for stocks in 22 years.
Meanwhile, gold gained about 8% on the month. As Peter pointed out in his latest podcast, while stocks had significant gains in dollar terms, they actually lost value in terms of real money.
And as Peter also pointed out, when you look at the recent stock market gains, you have to put them into context.
When people talk about the economy, they generally focus on government policies such as taxation and regulation. For instance, Republicans credit President Trump’s tax cuts for the seemingly booming economy and surging stock markets. Meanwhile, Democrats blame “deregulation” for the 2008 financial crisis. While government policies do have an impact on the direction of the economy, this analysis completely ignores the biggest player on the stage – the Federal Reserve.
After the stock market started to tank last fall, the Federal Reserve rushed in and saved the day – at least temporarily. Peter Schiff predicted this would happen. In fact, last December he said the Fed was about to initiate its last rate increase. But Peter also said the “Powell Pause” wouldn’t be enough. Just a couple of weeks ago, Peter reiterated that the Fed is about to cut interest rates again.
This isn’t mere speculation. Peter is basing these predictions on fundamental economic calculations. Central banks can stimulate the economy with easy money, but the boom can’t last forever. In an article published on the Mises Wire, economist Thorsten Polleit explains why the Federal Reserve-induced boom will eventually get exactly what’s coming to it.
The Federal Reserve held its June Open Market Committee Meeting this week and it looks like Powell and company are fresh out of patience. In fact, that word didn’t come up once. And while the Fed held pat on interest rates, for now, virtually everybody is betting on a rate cut in the near future. This has caused gold to surge to prices not seen in nearly six years. Meanwhile, American consumers are still running up debt and the Chinese are shedding it. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about it.
It looks they’ve run out of patience at the Eccles Building.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee wrapped up its June meeting yesterday leaving interest rates unchanged. But the talk coming from the central bankers was decidedly dovish. Patience was not in the Fed’s vocabulary. Instead, Powell and company talked about “uncertainty” and said they would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
As Peter Schiff said in his podcast, the table is now set for a rate cut in July.
All eyes will focus on the Federal Reserve as it wraps up its June meeting. But it’s important to remember the Fed isn’t the only game in town. Moves by the European Central Bank also have a significant impact on the global economy (and the gold market) and it has taken a decidedly dovish turn.
Most analysts expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady in June, but potentially set the stage for a July rate cut. (Although Jim Grant said he thinks the Fed will actually cut this month.)
Back in December, Peter Schiff said the Federal Reserve’s was about to do the last rate hike of the cycle. He went further and said the “Powell Pause” wouldn’t be enough and the next step would be rate cuts and another round of quantitative easing. Fast forward to today and nearly everybody expects that the Fed will cut rates at least once this year.
Jim Grant appeared on CNBC Markets Now on June 17 and shocked the panel when he said he thinks the Fed will actually cut rates during this week’s meeting. Most analysts expect the central bank to hold pat during this meeting and then possibly cut in July.
Whether or not he’s right about the timing, Grant offers a good explanation as to why the Fed will cut and the likely results. He says the central bank is pursuing a dual mandate of arsonist and fireman.