According to the BLS, the economy added 431k jobs in March. February was revised up to 750k from an original 678k. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%.
It would appear this was another strong jobs report. But when you did into the data, it’s not that clear-cut.
February was another very strong jobs month with the economy adding an estimated 678,000 jobs vs an expected 400,000.
The unemployment rate came in at 3.8%, down from 4%. Labor force participation also improved, rising from 62.2% to 62.3%. Both December and January numbers were revised upwards.
There have been some major adjustments to headline data numbers so far in February from the BLS, the Fed, and now the Comex.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The January jobs report came in much stronger than expected. According to the labor department, the US economy added 467,000 jobs last month. This was significantly better than the 150,000 job projection. But there was some bad inflation news buried in the Labor Department data.
January showed very strong growth with 467k new jobs reported by the BLS. This crushed expectations of 150k. Some analysts even projected a contraction given the reported loss by ADP on Wednesday.
However, the bigger story is the revisions of prior months. October to December saw upward revisions of nearly 900k jobs! The story is more complex though. The BLS has updated their models to “smooth” out the job numbers for seasonality. Most of these “new” gains were pulled from job reports last summer (more on this below).
It is often said that perception is reality. Politicians spend a tremendous amount of time and energy trying to shape perceptions. So, how does the average American perceive the US economy? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about economic perceptions – both those the politicians are trying to create and those actually held by American consumers.
President Joe Biden is running around trying to take credit for a “booming” economy. It’s the ultimate political dumb-guy argument.
November had been the weakest jobs report of the year until a meager 199k were announced for December. As shown below, over the last 18 months, only December 2020 was weaker. This was right when the Covid second wave was wreaking havoc and before vaccines became available to the public.
That was one weird jobs report.
The labor department released the November employment data on Friday. The numbers simply don’t make any sense. As one chief investment officer put it, “One of the weirdest reports I have ever seen.”
One thing seems pretty certain. The labor market has not recovered, no matter how the powers that be spin the numbers.
November was the weakest jobs report of the year, coming in at a paltry 210,000, missing consensus expectations of 573,000. There were modest revisions upwards over the last two months of 8,000 and 15,000 for September and October respectively. Nothing to be excited about.
