Why is there a labor shortage in the US?
In a nutshell, a lot of people have simply dropped out of the labor market. They’re not working.
The headlines keep telling us the US has a robust job market, but a deeper dive into the data tells a much different story.
Are the people who are predicting a big economic crash right? Or are they just crying wolf? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey explains why it’s hard to predict the exact timing of a crash even if you’re certain it’s on the horizon. He also talks about a couple of news items this week that caused the price of gold to yo-yo.
President Joe Biden said Americans are becoming more optimistic about the economy. He said that’s part of the “broad story about the economy we’re building that works for everyone.” Peter Schiff has a different take on the economy. He recently appeared on The Megyn Kelly Show to talk about it.
Mark Twain once said there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. The government excels in all three. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the recent jobs data. He reveals that the numbers just don’t add up and explains why the labor market might not be as awesome as the mainstream keeps telling you. He also talks about the newest data on central bank gold buying.
Have you ever had a gut feeling that the labor reports put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are hinky?
If so, trust your gut.
According to the BLS, the economy added 263k jobs in November with a modest revision up in October from 261k to 284k but a revision down in September from 365k to 269k. October was a beat against median expectations of 200k. The employment rate (black line) stayed flat at 3.7% while the labor force participation ticked down from 62.2% to 62.1% This is the weakest labor force participation since December of last year.
Despite the better-than-expected headline number, the job market continues to slow.
According to the BLS, the economy added 261k jobs in October with a big upward revision in September from 263k to 315k. October was a beat against median expectations of 205k. The employment rate (black line) increased from 3.5% to 3.7% while the labor force participation ticked down from 62.3% to 62.2%.
On the surface, the September job numbers looked pretty good. The economy continues to add jobs and the unemployment rate fell. But these headline numbers paper over underlying problems in the economy.
While President Biden brags about job growth, the average American is working more just to maintain last year’s standard of living.
According to the BLS, the economy added 263,000 jobs in September, which was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000. More significantly, the trends reveal a slowing labor market.
Education and Health led the way with strong hiring along with Leisure and Hospitality.