Decades of negative interest rate policy in Japan have ended. That could mean the end of the $20 trillion “yen carry trade,” once one of the most popular trades on foreign exchange markets, and a chain reaction in the global economy. The yen carry trade is when investors borrow yen to buy assets denominated in higher-yielding foreign currencies, like the USD, where interest rates are higher.
The Bank of Japan’s historic move to end the country’s negative interest rate policy after nearly two decades triggered a jolt upward to new all-time highs for gold against the yen. But what are the implications for gold in the medium and longer term? The answer is far from simple.
Japan is in the midst of a slow-motion train wreck. The country has a massive national debt and it is starting to feel the pressure of rising interest rates. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the situation in Japan and pointed out some disturbing parallels to what’s happening in the US.
Does the massive national debt matter?
A lot of people don’t think it does, at least not yet. They point to Japan as an example of a country that has a much higher debt-to-GDP ratio and is doing fine. Peter Schiff said they’re looking at the wrong country. The US is more like Argentina than Japan.
With price inflation running rampant in Japan, Japanese households are rushing to buy gold.
The sudden surge in demand, along with the devaluation of the yen, has driven the price of gold to record highs in yen terms.
While most central banks around the world have tightened monetary policy in an attempt to bring price inflation under control, Japan has done the exact opposite. But in a surprise move, the Bank of Japan widened its target range for 10-year Japanese bond yields, effectively raising the interest rate.
The move strengthened the yen, put more pressure on a weakening dollar, and rattled the global bond market.
Last week, Keynesian extraordinaire Paul Krugman called for more fiscal stimulus in the form of a “government investment program.” Mike Maharrey poked fun of him in his Fun on Friday column. But while it might be amusing to crack jokes at the expense of Keynsians and their obsession with both fiscal and monetary stimulus, the policies they promote are actually quite pernicious.
In fact, the do the exact opposite of what they’re supposed to.
Over the past 12 months, the US federal government has added $1.5 trillion to the national debt.
As of Jan 30, the debt stood just under the $22 trillion mark at $21.97 trillion, according to the latest Treasury Department data. As WolfStreet put it, we’re seeing these rapidly increasing levels of debt during “good times when the economy is hopping. At the next recession, this is going to get cute.”
But even as the US added to its debt load, foreign holders of US Treasurys are gradually selling them off. So, who’s buying up all of this debt? And is it sustainable?
China and Japan dumped more US Treasuries in October, even as the federal government continued to run up its debt.
Chinese holdings of US Treasuries dropped for the fifth straight month, sinking to the lowest level since May 2017, according to data recently released by the Treasury Department. The total amount of US debt held by China fell from $1.15 trillion to 1.14 trillion. Over the past year, the Chinese have shed $50 billion in US debt.
The Japanese and Chinese aren’t buying US Treasuries. In fact, both countries reduced their holdings in April.
According to the US Treasury Department, the Japanese disposed of $12.3 billion in US debt. Meanwhile, Chinese Treasury holdings fell by $5.8 billion.
This could be a troubling development for the US government as it scrambles to fund its massive deficits and ever-growing debt.
