As reported last week, Comex January’s open interest activity was looking strong in silver and modest in gold. The initial results are promising, especially given the probability contracts will open mid-month for immediate delivery.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
We’re on the cusp of a new year. We certainly had a wild ride in 2021 with continuing coronavirus drama, inflation that turned out to be not so transitory, and a record-breaking stock market bubble. So, what was the biggest story of 2021? Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey thinks it was a story that wasn’t told – the story of real interest rates. He wraps up the year by telling that story.
While the Federal Reserve talks about tightening monetary policy, the Chinese central bank is heading in the opposite direction. This could boost gold demand in that country even further.
Earlier this month, the People’s Bank of China announced a 0.5% cut in financial institutions’ required reserve ratio (RRR). According to the World Gold Council, this move will inject about $1.2 trillion yuan into the Chinese economy.
Inflation is sizzling hot. Gold has historically served as an inflation hedge. So, why hasn’t gold caught a bid?
In a word, confusion.
Taper tantrums and fear of Fed rate hikes have generated massive confusion in the markets. People are selling gold when they should be heavily buying gold in the dips.
And at the root of this confusion is the failure to account for real interest rates.
Gold looked very strong through mid-November. Trends in September and October had been pointing to a breakout. The market delivered sending gold up through $1870. Unfortunately, hard resistance kept the bulls in check, despite repeated attempts to breakthrough.
The previous price analysis presumed that a Brainard nomination at the Fed would be the catalyst needed to break through $1880. It also assumed that a Powell nomination, though expected, would bring gold back down to some extent.
Unfortunately, the gold market took the Powell news harder than expected.
Gold inventories in Comex vaults increased for only the second time since February this year.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
We got more bad inflation news this week as the Federal Reserve wrapped up its final FOMC meeting of the year. Supposedly, the central bank has launched its war on inflation. Has it though? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about inflation and the Fed meeting and explains why it looks more like the Fed is taking a pea shooter into a bazooka fight.
The silver-gold ratio has climbed back above 80-1. This has historically signaled silver on sale.
As I write this article, the ratio stands at just over 80:1. That means it takes just over 80 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold. To put that into perspective, the average in the modern era has been between 40:1 and 50:1.
Russians have gone on a gold-buying spree.
According to Russian media reports, investors in the country have bought a record amount of gold since 2014 despite prohibitively high taxes.
Pretty much everybody now expects the Federal Reserve to go to war against inflation, but the central bank has a problem not many people seem to be talking about – an economy buried under debt. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about consumer debt levels and their ramifications. He also discusses central bank gold-buying and breaks the November CPI data live.
