The Federal Reserve got just what it needed – an even cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report card for June. This could give the central bank a plausible excuse to back off its inflation fight.
But make no mistake, inflation isn’t dead or buried.
In the wake of Western sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, many central banks are bringing their gold home for safekeeping, according to an Invesco survey of central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
Americans continued to run up credit card debt in May, but borrowing for big-ticket items tanked. This could indicate that cash-strapped, over-leveraged consumers are reaching the end of the rope.
American consumers borrowed another $7.2 billion in May, increasing total consumer debt to a record $4.865 trillion, according to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve.
Stocks and bonds had a tough week last week. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the market moves in the context of Fed rhetoric and the jobs reports. He concluded that we could be heading toward another big leg down in bonds, and this bond bear will maul stocks and the dollar.
Most people believe members of the Federal Reserve are highly trained experts who are imminently qualified to run monetary policy. Guided by this perception, the mainstream treats Fed pronouncements as gospel. But if you compare Fed projections to actual outcomes, it looks like they’re just guessing. In fact, you would probably get more accurate results throwing darts at a dartboard.
Despite doing nothing at the June meeting, Federal Reserve officials continue to talk tough about fighting inflation. The anticipation of another rate hike created headwinds for both stocks and gold this week. But Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey thinks something is amiss. In this episode, he talks about the disconnect between the central bankers’ rhetoric and their actions. Are they clueless or running scared? This week, he also talks about another big jump in the national debt and the latest on central bank gold buying.
June continued a stock market rally that produced big gains through the first half of the year. But what exactly is driving this rally and is it really justified by the economic fundamentals? Peter breaks it down in a recent podcast and concludes that this is likely a bear market rally.
There was a lot of economic data this month that seems to signal a strong economy. Does it though? Is everything really fine? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey digs deeper into the data and reveals a less sanguine reality. He also explains the inner workings of the spot price for gold, how it’s determined, and the factors that influence it.
We tend to focus a lot on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy, while the central bank’s balance sheet stays in the background. But the balance sheet arguably has more impact on the economy over the long run.
Since the Fed began hiking interest rates in March 2022, it has also shrunk the balance sheet. But balance sheet reduction hasn’t been aggressive. In fact, the decline in the balance sheet since the pandemic is like a drop of water in the ocean compared to the massive expansion we’ve seen since 2008.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell went to Capitol Hill this week and talked. His open-mouth operations dominated the financial news and drove gold lower. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey digs into Powell’s comments, reads between the lines, and points out a couple of things Powell got completely wrong. He also talks about some actual economic news that most people just ignored.
