Analysts say demand for gold in India will likely rise in the second half of the year thanks to a good monsoon season. Increasing demand for gold in the world’s second-largest market could help boost overall global demand for the yellow metal.
According to NDTV, monsoon rains hit Kerela at the end of May. This was a few days earlier than usual and bolstered an optimistic outlook for agricultural and economic output.
World Gold Council chief market strategist John Reade recently talked to Commodity TV about the current state of the gold market and what he sees in the future.
Reade cast an optimistic tone, saying the supply and demand fundamentals point toward a healthy, growing gold market moving forward.
I always enjoyed watching the TV show, Dirty Jobs. Mainly because it made me feel better about sitting at a computer writing stuff all day. It can be monotonous, but it certainly beats inspecting sewers, or wrangling snakes, or chicken sexing.
But what if the payoff for your dirty job was gold? Would you consider it?
Some people in India do. They scavenge through, dust, grime and sewage on Mumbai’s streets to collect gold.
Chinese and Indians love gold. It is not only considered an investment and a way to protect wealth. The yellow metal also weaves itself into the cultural fabric of both countries. Gold is often given as gifts at weddings, and during other holidays and festivals. This affinity for gold has led some to dub a major component of overall demand for the yellow metal in India and China the “love trade.”
According to an article published in Forbes, the love trade is looking pretty good for the rest of 2018. This bodes well for overall gold demand, as China and India rank as the No. 1 and No. 2 gold markets in the world.
Indians are hoarding their gold despite an increase in the price during the first quarter of 2018. Analysts say they are holding onto their gold in anticipation of bigger price increases.
Gold was up around 1.5% in dollar terms in the first quarter of this year. According to the Economic Times of India, the yellow metal appreciated 4.41% in rupees.
Even with that healthy increase, old gold sales in India fell by 35-40% in Q1 2018 compared to the previous quarter. According to the paper, analysts and traders think Indians are holding back selling in anticipation of further price increases, especially if the US and China get into a full-blown trade war.
There’s been a lot of focus on inflation and interest rates and how they will impact the gold market in the coming months. But gold has two fundamentals going for it that aren’t getting nearly the same kind of attention.
Simple supply and demand.
All kinds of factors impact the price of precious metals, but supply and demand are the most fundamental. With that in mind, the stage seems to be set for silver to have a strong year in 2018.
According to the Silver Institute 2018 Market Trends report, the silver market faces growing demand and shrinking supply in 2018.
We write a lot about India because people in the country love gold. Even the poor buy gold in India. Indians value gold as a store of wealth, especially in poor rural regions. Two-thirds of India’s gold demand comes from these areas, where the vast majority of people live outside the official tax system. Gold is one of the engines that make the Indian economy run.
India gets a lot of attention because it ranks as the world’s second-largest gold consumer, but it isn’t the only country with an affinity for the yellow metal. Gold has played a vital role in the history and economy of Vietnam, and still serves as an economic lifeline for the Vietnamese people today.
There are signs that December was a strong month for global gold demand.
The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week’s precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
