It happened again. The CPI data for June came in hotter than expected. Prices rose at the fastest pace in this inflationary cycle. That pushes the Fed ever closer to having to make a very difficult choice. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the most recent CPI data and talks about the “Sophie’s choice” facing the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Government ran an $89B deficit in June. This was an increase MoM but below the June deficit last year of $174B.
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for June came in at a blistering 1.35% MoM and 9.11% YoY, beating expectations of 1.1% and 8.8% respectively. All prices rose in May with 8 of 11 categories rising faster than the 12-month trend, representing 94.7% of the total CPI.
The US government increased its total debt by $69 billion in June. The average interest rate on all of that debt is also going up, a growing problem for the borrow and spend government.
The Treasury Department continues to roll short-term Treasury Bills into longer-dated securities, allowing $148B in Bills to roll off the debt statement this month.
The mainstream seems to have conceded that the economy is heading toward a recession. But most people aren’t too worried. They seem to think the downturn will turn out short and shallow. In his podcast, Peter explains why the recession will more likely be long and deep. Since people don’t understand the nature of the boom, they can’t understand the nature of the bust.
According to the BLS, the economy added 372k jobs in June. This exceeded the 250k market expectations and seems to indicate the labor market is more resilient than the rest of the economy which the Atlanta Fed currently forecasts as being already in recession. While resiliency is a positive sign for the economy, a strong job market will make it harder for the Fed to bring down inflation.
And there are some signs of weakness when you dig into the data – particularly the revisions.
The Federal Reserve is putting on quite the tough guy act. Everybody is convinced the central bank is going to keep up the inflation fight even if the economy gets shaky. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the Fed’s hawkish messaging and wonders out loud if the central bankers are writing checks they can’t cash.
The May trade deficit came in at -$86B. This was another MoM decline but the monthly deficit is still significantly larger than it was at any point before 2022 as shown below. One of the biggest concerns is the Services Surplus contracting by 8.1%.
Central banks globally added another net 35 tons of gold to reserves in May, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council. This follows on the heels of a net 19.4-ton increase in gold holdings in April and an 84-ton surge in gold reserve through Q1.
The technical analysis last weekend highlighted that gold looks to be in a bottoming structure. Despite the sell-off this week, $1800 held, which could be another indication that gold is in the process of bottoming, with some final weak hands getting pushed out of the market.
Please note: the COTs report was published 7/3/2022 for the period ending 6/28/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
