As we’ve reported central banks globally have been piling in gold. The question is why?
For the first time ever, the money supply contracted on an annual basis in 2022.
The seasonally adjusted Money Supply in December was negative for a fifth consecutive month, coming in at -$147B. This was the largest monthly contraction in M2 going back to 1959. This type of contraction typically does not happen!
Gold deliveries in January have reached 6,327 contracts with only 178 remaining in open interest. While this fell shy of the last five minor months, there are a few signs that are noteworthy.
First, the delivery volume was greater than last January. This is important because January is typically a slow month after the major December contract.
A bill filed in the Tennessee Senate would establish a state bullion depository. This would not only create a safe place to store precious metals; it also has the potential to facilitate the everyday use of gold and silver in financial transactions in the Volunteer State and undermine the Federal Reserve monopoly on money.
The flow of gold and silver out of Comex vaults has slowed in recent weeks, but there is no question that metal continues to move out.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
Pop some popcorn and get ready for the next political dog and pony show. The US government bumped up against its statutory borrowing limit this week. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the looming debt ceiling fight and the deeper problems that will inevitably get ignored as everybody absorbs the political theater. He also talks about the growing bullishness in the gold market.
Gold posted a small gain in 2022, and it was one of the best-performing assets of the year. Nevertheless, there is still a perception in the mainstream that gold is dead. But that perception may be changing. In a recent note, Bank of America commodity strategist Michael Widmer said gold will be a “mainstay” in portfolios over the next several years.
With the rate of increase in the CPI slowing, many people in the mainstream think the Federal Reserve is winning the war on inflation. In a recent podcast, Peter Schiff said this is wishful thinking. He said that the Fed is losing the war and it will ultimately surrender to inflation.
Schiff is not alone in his thinking. In a recent interview with The Market NZZ, investment guru Jim Grant argues that we have not seen the last of this inflationary outburst because inflation has become deeply rooted in the global financial system.
The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$85B in December. While this was much smaller than the deficit posted in November, it marks one of the largest December deficits ever.
That pushed then 2022 calendar year deficit to over $1.4 trillion.
The CPI cooled again in December driven by a massive fall in Energy prices. As shown below, the fall in Energy has been a big reason for the recent drop in inflation. Commodities have also been a driver down as Used Cars and Trucks fell -2.5% MoM and -8.8% YoY. That said, stickier items like Shelter continue to increase.