Gold demand in India was strong in May with retail sales rebounding and imports up both month-on-month and year-on-year.
Even with rising interest rates and the dollar at multi-year highs, gold has held its ground. Nevertheless, we have yet to see a big spike in gold prices despite persistent inflation. Why not?
The perception is that rising interest rates are always bad for gold. But does perception match up with reality?
If history is any indication, the answer is no.
After a big miss on the Powell/Brainard nominations in November, the price analysis has been fairly accurate. Identifying the initial breakout above $1800, mentioning that $1900 was fragile support, and last month concluding that gold had found a bottom around $1800.
For the past month, gold has been consolidating within a tight range around $1850. The data suggests the next move is most likely up. Lots of indicators have bottomed, which leaves little downside remaining. The market has also priced in an extremely aggressive Fed and held up very well over that time.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.
The Comex has signaled weakness in the silver market but has been some activity bubbling under the surface. What’s really going on with silver?
They tried to deny it for months, but now everybody knows we have an inflation problem. The president, Congress and all of the central bankers at the Fed are trying to find ways to solve this problem. But as host Mike Maharrey explains in this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, all of their solutions are the equivalent of dumping buckets of water on a drowning man.
A few years ago, CNBC commentator Jim Leventhal made a pretty astounding comment. When asked about gold, he said he had no interest in it because gold has no uses as a metal.
This is a pretty absurd statement. Gold has multiple uses. And it would probably have even more if it wasn’t so rare and expensive.
In 2021, gold demand came in at 4,666 tons. Where did all of that gold go?
Outflows of gold from Comex vaults have accelerated. Meanwhile, there is some shuffling of inventories of silver.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
The Federal Reserve just gave us the biggest interest rate hike since 1994. A month ago, we were told a 75 basis-point hike wasn’t on the table. It almost seems like the central bankers are winging it. Or as Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey puts it, it’s like they’re playing darts while wearing blindfolds. In this episode, Mike breaks down the rhetoric coming out of this Fed meeting and speculates on what might be next.