Peter's Blog

Jobs: QCEW shows over 2M jobs lost in Q1

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Fed Governor Concedes Next Rate Move Is a Coin Flip as Inflation Stays Well Above Target

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told Reuters on September 3rd that inflation “remains meaningfully above” the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2 percent goal, even as he pointed to what he called recent signs of disinflation. The remarks, delivered at a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview in Washington, D.C., come less than two weeks before the FOMC’s […]

Private Hiring Grinds to a Near-Halt as Job Growth Hits Seven-Month Low

U.S. private employers added just 38,000 jobs in August 2026, according to the ADP National Employment Report released this week, the slowest pace of hiring since January. The report, compiled from aggregated and anonymized payroll data covering more than 26 million U.S. employees in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed weakness spreading beneath […]

Labor Market Data Keeps Getting Revised Down

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July 2026 on Tuesday, September 1st, showing job openings “little changed” at 7.3 million. That phrase, along with its close cousins “essentially unchanged” and “held steady,” appeared throughout the report, describing nearly every headline metric. Hires and total separations both […]

Warsh Vows No Excuses on 2 Percent Inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole podium on Friday to draw a bright line around the central bank’s credibility, declaring that the long-promised 2 percent inflation goal on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is “a firm, fixed target.” Price stability, he said, “is not self-executing…it’s the Fed’s job to deliver stable […]

The Fed Has Added $344B in Treasury Bills in a year

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has quietly been doing Quantitative Easing since February. The pace of accumulation has slowed in recent […]

Consumer Confidence Slips Again, Future Outlook Darkens

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July, based on a survey conducted between August 3rd and August 16th. The decline marks the second consecutive monthly drop, though the headline figure masks a sharper divergence beneath the surface. While consumers grew somewhat more upbeat about […]

The Dangerous Politics of Techno-Asset Inflation

Monetary inflation and technological revolution have combined to produce dangerous asset bubbles throughout history, from the precious-metal inflows and printing press of the Northern Renaissance to today’s digital-era boom in equities and speculative assets. The technology-driven productivity gains mask rising prices in goods markets, giving central banks cover to keep interest rates artificially low, fuel […]

July Income Rises, but Inflation Erases Most of the Gain

Personal income climbed by $115.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in July 2026, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income, which is income after taxes, rose by an even larger 0.5 percent. Yet consumer spending told a different story, inching up just 0.2 percent in nominal terms and less […]

The Warsh Fed is Growing Money Supply at the Fastest Rate since Covid

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]