The Federal Reserve bases its monetary policy decisions on where it thinks the economy is heading. The $64,000 question is how does it know? Or to put it another way, what makes us think a panel made up of a few economists and policy wonks can accurately predict the future and then make the “right” decisions?
During an interview on CNBC Squawk Ally, Jim Grant said we shouldn’t put this kind of faith in the Fed and that its monetary manipulations have created an environment of tremendous uncertainty.
I think people are too certain about things about which they should not be certain.”
Stock markets appear to have stabilized after a “December to remember.” But in his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff said we’re really just in the eye of a financial hurricane.
The selloff began after the September Fed rate hike. At the time, Peter called it the hike that broke the camel’s back. The market plunged in October and Wall Street ended up having its worst December since 1931. But over the last few weeks, things have calmed as we entered the eye of the storm.
Peter Schiff has said it’s not that we have a “volatile” economy right now. We have a bubble economy, and we are at the beginning of a much bigger crisis than we went through in 2008. Peter continued with this theme on a recent appearance on Kitco News with Daniela Cambone noting that things are setting up for gold to shine in 2019. As far as the yo-yoing stock market?
It’s just the air coming out of the bubble. That’s the volatility,” Peter said.
The Federal Reserve released minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and it looks like the “Powell Put” might be in.
The minutes revealed a much more dovish sounding Fed as we move into 2019. Members of the FOMC indicated they could be “patient” with future rate hikes and said the future path of the central bank’s monetary policy is “less clear.”
What is clear is that Powell and company seem to be getting cold feet when it comes to continuing on an aggressive tightening policy. The question is why?
Wall Street has been on a roller coaster ride over the last few months. If you listen to the pundits on the financial networks, you’ll hear the word “volatile” used over and over again. That word certainly seems to describe the current state of US stock markets and in a broader sense the economy. But during a recent interview on RT News with Rick Sanchez, Peter Schiff said it’s not that the economy is volatile. It’s actually a bubble. And we are on the verge of a bigger crisis than the one we went through in 2008.
Last week, we saw more huge swings in US stock markets. On Thursday, stocks fell sharply, but they recaptured all the losses on Friday in the wake optimism about trade talks between the US and China, of a strong December jobs report, and “dovish” comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Peter Schiff hit on all of these topics in his most recent podcast.